Race16 Handicaps

Sheer Force's time correction factor (TCF) is unchanged after Race15, as indeed are the TCFs for most yachts. After their exceptionally good races last week, both Spearhead and Summersalt got penalised by the handicapper, as did Scarlett O'Hara, which also registered its best race of the series as measured by my elapsed time difference from the fleet average statistic. These penalties amount to between 30secs and a minute.

The table below is as usual, sorted by handicap, which is shown in calculated minutes relative to Sheer Force.

**7878	SAILORS WITH DISABILITIES	-19.266
*8001	PANTHER	-15.798
*6095	UPLIFT	-13.212
*6900	X3	-11.592
*6175	LOVE BYTE	-9.678
*8301	CADENZA	-9.576
2999	OBSESSION	-9.492
6155	GETAWAY SAILING.COM	-9.048
*5382	TOCCATA	-7.182
*2020	SPEARHEAD	-6.414
*KA400	SCARLETT O'HARA	-5.076
4970	AKELA	-4.536
**6999	TALON	-3.744
*6279	SUMMERSALT	-3.582
*8004	DJ2 BOS GLOBAL	-3.372
*6472	SYMBIOSIS	-3.336
*7404	CHANCELLOR	-2.712
*4208	FARR LAP	-1.914
*80808	PANACEA	-1.242
*MH163	CHLOE III	-1.200
4037	SHEER FORCE	0.000
*316	ANTHANTA VI	0.288
*6182	SUNDOWNER V	0.468
*MH304	DISTRACTION	1.278
*5665	AMON RA	2.820

Race15 Results

Now that the results for Race15 have come out, it seems that maybe the Sheer Force crew should have attended the protest meeting! If Chloe III did in fact sail the wrong course, as one of the protestors is thought to have claimed, then she wasn't penalised for it. She has taken1st place on corrected times in the race, and accordingly (with our 9th placing) has passed us in both pointscores to take 3rd place (main pointscore) and 1st place (lite pointscore). Spearhead came 4th and Symbiosis came 5th and were able to maintain their 1st and 2nd positions in the main pointscore.

The results show that 6 yachts withdrew from the race, suggesting that they sailed to the longer, regular course Lady Bay mark, and, admitting that, withdrew to avoid disqualification.

I use the statistic elapsed time difference from fleet average to judge the performance of yachts from race to race. It's not perfect, but it is a good guide. The graph shows the passage of this statistic through the series for Sheer Force as well as Chloe III and Spearhead. It shows that Sheer Force had a "typical" Race15, but that Spearhead and particularly Chloe III recorded exceptionally good times. Chloe III has indeed been improving all season, but can she really have improved about 12 minutes in the last race??? These statistics are calculated before the withdrawals are removed from the results, so it cannot be said that they are skewed by the withdrawals. In terms of the finishing order, Chloe III and Summersalt surprised the handicapper greatly by crossing the line 5 and 4 places respectively better than the time correction factors would predict.

These are the only facts available to us, but if it was a horserace, swabs would be taken.

The table below shows only the qualified finishers, sorted as usual by elapsed time.

Results Race15	Elapsed	Outright	Handicap	Diff fm	Mins	Rel to
	Time	Place	Predict	Fleet	behind	Sheer
			Place	Average	winner	Force
SCARLETT O'HARA	0:58:04	1	4	-7.6	0:00:00	0:12:10
SUMMERSALT	0:58:17	2	6	-7.4	0:00:13	0:11:57
SPEARHEAD	0:58:19	3	2	-7.4	0:00:15	0:11:55
TOCCATA	0:58:24	4	1	-7.3	0:00:20	0:11:50
CHLOE III	0:59:37	5	10	-6.1	0:01:33	0:10:37
SYMBIOSIS	1:01:07	6	5	-4.6	0:03:03	0:09:07
AKELA	1:01:56	7	3	-3.8	0:03:52	0:08:18
FARR LAP	1:08:42	8	9	3.0	0:10:38	0:01:32
CHANCELLOR	1:09:56	9	7	4.2	0:11:52	0:00:18
SALONA	1:09:58	10	8	4.3	0:11:54	0:00:16
SHEER FORCE	1:10:14	11	11	4.5	0:12:10	0:00:00
ANTHANTA VI	1:13:00	12	12	7.3	0:14:56	0:02:46
AMON RA	1:13:47	13	13	8.1	0:15:43	0:03:33
	Corrected	Corrected
	Time	Position
SCARLETT O'HARA	0:58:55	3
SUMMERSALT	0:57:44	2
SPEARHEAD	1:00:33	4
TOCCATA	1:01:43	6
CHLOE III	0:57:00	1
SYMBIOSIS	1:00:44	5
AKELA	1:03:34	7
FARR LAP	1:07:04	10
CHANCELLOR	1:09:12	13
SALONA	1:08:30	11
SHEER FORCE	1:06:19	9
ANTHANTA VI	1:08:49	12
AMON RA	1:06:12	8

Sheer Force crossed the line in 11th place out of 13, some 12 minutes behind Scarlett O'Hara which got the gun. (Panther, a withdrawal, was akmost 3 minutes ahead of Scarlett.) Our 11th place was exactly as predicted by the handicap. The handicapper's score in Race15 depends on weather its calculated before or after the withdrawals. It was a lousy minus 19%. counting all yachts, but the score improves to plus 22% if the withdrawals are excluded.

Race15 PreReport Blog

There can be no real report on Race 15 until the protests meeting is held and then we will know who came where and by how much. But Noni and Oliver took some great photos on David's camera, so in the meantime, here are three of them. Enjoy!

Race15 Handicaps

As shown in the graph, the latest update to Sheer Force's time correction factor almost takes us full circle to the handicap we had at the start of the series. This is the price of doing well, obviously!

Several yachts were penalised more than Sheer Force in the latest corrections. These were Obsession, Anthanta IV, Sundowner V, Chloe III and Symbiosis, for that we can be thankful, and we are now planted in the middle of our peer group. We have to beat Anthanta, Sundowner by up to a minute, and Distraction and Amon Ra by more. Chloe, Panacea and Farr Lap have to beat Sheer Force by up to two minutes.

**7878	SAILORS WITH DISABILITIES	-19.266
*8001	PANTHER	-15.798
*6095	UPLIFT	-13.212
*6900	X3	-11.592
*6175	LOVE BYTE	-9.678
*8301	CADENZA	-9.576
2999	OBSESSION	-9.492
6155	GETAWAY SAILING.COM	-9.048
*5382	TOCCATA	-6.750
*2020	SPEARHEAD	-5.646
4970	AKELA	-4.920
*KA400	SCARLETT O'HARA	-4.224
**6999	TALON	-3.744
*8004	DJ2 BOS GLOBAL	-3.372
*6472	SYMBIOSIS	-2.958
*6279	SUMMERSALT	-2.778
*7404	CHANCELLOR	-2.712
*4208	FARR LAP	-1.914
*80808	PANACEA	-1.242
*MH163	CHLOE III	-0.702
4037	SHEER FORCE	0.000
*316	ANTHANTA VI	0.102
*6182	SUNDOWNER V	0.468
*MH304	DISTRACTION	1.278
*5665	AMON RA	2.820

The pointscores are very close, especially the "lite" series which Sheer Force can win by finishing one place ahead of Chloe III on corrected times (making sure we are not caught by anyone behind us). It's difficult to win the full season pointscore in this last race because we are 6 points behind Spearhead, and our drops are 4 points worse. (But we can win if we finish 1st, and Spearhead is 11th or worse.) We only have to beat Symbiosis on handicap to hold second place, but Chloe is threatening us from only 5 points behind us, with a 2 points favourable drop position, so we are vulnerable.

Race14 Results

Fantastic! Sheer Force's 2nd place on corrected time while our master tactician was otherwise occupied on the Champs d'Elysee was a great source of joy for the crew, including the broken footed Clare. After the handicap factors were applied, we were 1m05 behind Sundowner V, although only 20secs behind her on the water.

This great result, achieved in a 10kn north-easterly, will keep us in equal 2nd place on 50pts in the main pointscore (with Symbiosis) when the points are updated. Our hoped for equal first place will not eventuate, because Spearhead, having come 15th on corrected times, will only add 8pts due to her drop situation, and will retain 1st place on 44pts. The main pointscore is close with only one race to go, but the "lite" pointscore is much closer. Sheer Force will be in 2nd place, only one point behind Chloe III, and one point ahead of Spearhead.

The table below shows the top 4 places in each of the expected pointscores after Race 14.

Points after Race14	Points	Place	Lowest Drop
SPEARHEAD	44	1	9
SYMBIOSIS	50	2	13
SHEER FORCE	50	2	13
CHLOE III	55	4	11
Pointscore "Lite"
CHLOE III	14	1	9
SHEER FORCE	15	2	8
SPEARHEAD	16	3	15
SYMBIOSIS	25	4	13

We rarely lead Farr Lap on the way back after the top mark, so the attached photo is included to attest to that. On the water, Sheer Force finished 18th out of 22. That fleet was the biggest in the series so far, and we crossed the line ahead of (unexpected by the handicapper) Farr Lap, Chancellor and Talon, as well as Anthanta IV (expected). Sundowner V, which we should have beaten by the handicapper's judgment, trailed us for a while, but passed us on the run to the line and won on handicap.

It was a bad race for the handicapper, with many yachts finishing way differently to their predictions. Even worse, the spread of corrected times (15m11) was greater than the spread of elapsed times (13m22), giving a negative score of -14%! This was mainly due a particularly slow race by the highest rated yacht CMC Markets (getawaysailing.com) which got the rare double of getting the gun (13mins ahead of Sheer Force) but coming last on corrected times, 9 mins behind 2nd last Panther. Not a good race for the biggest yachts. Maybe they lost time looking for the YA buoy at Lady Bay?

The table below gives the results sorted into the order across the finish line.

Results Race14	Elapsed	Outright	Handicap	Diff fm	Mins	Rel to
	Time	Place	Predict	Fleet	behind	Sheer
			Place	Average	winner	Force
CMC MARKETS	0:56:57	1	1	-8.4	0:00:00	0:12:47
PANTHER	0:58:28	2	2	-6.9	0:01:31	0:11:16
UPLIFT	0:58:53	3	3	-6.5	0:01:56	0:10:51
LOVE BYTE	0:59:57	4	6	-5.4	0:03:00	0:09:47
OBSESSION	1:00:27	5	7	-4.9	0:03:30	0:09:17
CADENZA	1:00:30	6	5	-4.8	0:03:33	0:09:14
NEXT	1:02:31	7	4	-2.8	0:05:34	0:07:13
TOCCATA	1:03:05	8	8	-2.3	0:06:08	0:06:39
SCARLETT O'HARA	1:06:07	9	12	0.8	0:09:10	0:03:37
LEONARDO	1:06:08	10	9	0.8	0:09:11	0:03:36
AKELA	1:06:19	11	11	1.0	0:09:22	0:03:25
SPEARHEAD	1:06:21	12	10	1.0	0:09:24	0:03:23
SYMBIOSIS	1:06:35	13	17	1.2	0:09:38	0:03:09
DJ2 BOS GLOBAL	1:08:02	14	15	2.7	0:11:05	0:01:42
SUMMERSALT	1:08:14	15	16	2.9	0:11:17	0:01:30
CHLOE III	1:09:18	16	19	4.0	0:12:21	0:00:26
SUNDOWNER V	1:09:24	17	22	4.1	0:12:27	0:00:20
SHEER FORCE	1:09:44	18	20	4.4	0:12:47	0:00:00
CHANCELLOR	1:09:57	19	14	4.6	0:13:00	0:00:13
TALON	1:10:05	20	13	4.7	0:13:08	0:00:21
ANTHANTA VI	1:10:19	21	21	5.0	0:13:22	0:00:35
FARR LAP	1:10:19	22	18	5.0	0:13:22	0:00:35
	Corrected	Corrected
	Time	Position
CMC MARKETS	1:19:43	22
PANTHER	1:10:59	21
UPLIFT	1:08:41	14
LOVE BYTE	1:06:05	6
OBSESSION	1:06:12	7
CADENZA	1:06:54	9
NEXT	1:09:28	17
TOCCATA	1:06:27	8
SCARLETT O'HARA	1:07:03	10
LEONARDO	1:09:33	18
AKELA	1:08:14	13
SPEARHEAD	1:08:58	15
SYMBIOSIS	1:05:52	5
DJ2 BOS GLOBAL	1:08:04	11
SUMMERSALT	1:08:07	12
CHLOE III	1:05:50	4
SUNDOWNER V	1:04:32	1
SHEER FORCE	1:05:37	2
CHANCELLOR	1:10:18	19
TALON	1:10:33	20
ANTHANTA VI	1:05:46	3
FARR LAP	1:09:11	16

Race14 Handicaps

Ouch! The handicapper has delivered Sheer Force a hard blow, with a steep increase in our TCF (time correction factor) for Race 14. The graph tells the story of how the steady easing of our TCF has been severely interrupted! This change amounts to half a minute when times are corrected.

The table below shows the effect of our new handicap when converted to minutes on the assumption of a race duration of 60mins. Our peer group (defined by me as yachts expected to finish within 2mins of Sheer Force) has been shuffled a bit. To beat them on handicap, Panacea has to beat us by 86secs, and Chloe III by 32secs. We have to beat Anthanta IV by 20secs, Sundowner V by 40secs, and Distraction by 64secs. We have to beat Amon Ra by more than 2mins, the biggest start we have given any yacht all series!

**7878	SAILORS WITH DISABILITIES	-19.464
*8001	PANTHER	-16.380
*6095	UPLIFT	-13.524
*6900	X3	-11.790
*8301	CADENZA	-9.894
*6175	LOVE BYTE	-9.672
2999	OBSESSION	-9.246
6155	GETAWAY SAILING.COM	-9.246
*5382	TOCCATA	-6.750
*2020	SPEARHEAD	-5.910
4970	AKELA	-5.280
*KA400	SCARLETT O'HARA	-4.380
**6999	TALON	-3.942
*7404	CHANCELLOR	-3.846
*8004	DJ2 BOS GLOBAL	-3.576
*6279	SUMMERSALT	-3.444
*6472	SYMBIOSIS	-2.892
*4208	FARR LAP	-2.574
*80808	PANACEA	-1.440
*MH163	CHLOE III	-0.534
4037	SHEER FORCE	0.000
*316	ANTHANTA VI	0.336
*6182	SUNDOWNER V	0.666
*MH304	DISTRACTION	1.080
*5665	AMON RA	2.622

 

Thanks to our great result in Race 13, the pointscores are close. In the main pointscore, we are only 13 points behind leader Spearhead, and in the "lite" pointscore, we are only 3 points behind Chloe III.

Race13 Results

The long wait for the results last night was put down to the very large field in RANSA's Race13 in the 2006/07 Twilights (63 yachts), and the time it took to record the times on the Committee Boat, and to process the results. Eventually, only Clare and I were there to celebrate Sheer Force's first place on corrected times, and to top that off, we won the meat tray raffle as well!

Race13 was the slowest so far (1hr12), and with sunsets now getting earlier each week, it's why I was suddenly wondering about the time limit as we came back down the harbour. But we made it with plenty of time to spare.

Our corrected time win was comfortable. We were 48secs ahead of Spearhead, who was in turn 58secs ahead of Summersalt. Sheer Force's elapsed time was 2.86mins slower than the average for the Division 1 fleet, so as shown in the chart, that performance puts us in line for a place on corrected times. As it turned out, it was first place!

This great result will promote us from 6th place in the pointscore up to 3rd place, 12 points behind the leader Spearhead, with two pointscore races to go. The table below is for the full series pointscore. In the "lite" (post-Christmas) pointscore, we will now be in second place!

Points after Race13	Points	Place	Lowest Drop
SPEARHEAD	36	1	8
SYMBIOSIS	45	2	13
SHEER FORCE	48	3	13
CHLOE III	51	4	11
PANTHER	51	4	10
SUMMERSALT	55	6	24
ANTHANTA VI	58	7	16
CADENZA	61	8	11
FARR LAP	65	9	24
SCARLETT O'HARA	70	10	24
TOCCATA	71	11	16
SUNDOWNER V	83	12	24
AMON RA	90	13	15
LOVE BYTE	95	14	24
DJ2 BOS GLOBAL	100	15	17
GETAWAY SAILING.COM	103	16	24
UPLIFT	115	17	24
OBSESSION	131	18	24
PANACEA	137	19	24
X3	164	20	24
AKELA	170	21	24
CHANCELLOR	173	22	24
DISTRACTION	202	23	24

On elapsed times, Sheer Force finished 16th out of 21, some 15:04 behind Panther, which got the gun as usual. The handicapper expected us to finish 20th in this field, so we did 4 places better than expected. So did Spearhead. To balance the unexpectedly good outright placings, Obsession, GetawaySailing.com and Bos Global were each 6 places worse than expected. The handicapper score was 56.2%, having reduced an elapsed time spread of 22:27 to a corrected time spread of 12:15.

The table below is, as usual, showing the finishing order of yachts across the line.

Results Race13	Elapsed	Outright	Handicap	Diff fm	Mins	Rel to
	Time	Place	Predict	Fleet	behind	Sheer
			Place	Average	winner	Force
PANTHER	0:59:58	1	1	-12.2	0:00:00	0:15:04
NEXT	1:03:26	2	2	-8.7	0:03:28	0:11:36
CADENZA	1:05:50	3	6	-6.3	0:05:52	0:09:12
LOVE BYTE	1:06:18	4	5	-5.9	0:06:20	0:08:44
SPEARHEAD	1:08:34	5	9	-3.6	0:08:36	0:06:28
TOCCATA	1:08:49	6	8	-3.4	0:08:51	0:06:13
LEONARDO	1:09:15	7	7	-2.9	0:09:17	0:05:47
AKELA	1:09:24	8	10	-2.8	0:09:26	0:05:38
OBSESSION	1:09:26	9	3	-2.7	0:09:28	0:05:36
GETAWAY SAILING.COM	1:09:27	10	4	-2.7	0:09:29	0:05:35
TALON	1:10:59	11	11	-1.2	0:11:01	0:04:03
SUMMERSALT	1:11:20	12	13	-0.8	0:11:22	0:03:42
SYMBIOSIS	1:12:21	13	15	0.2	0:12:23	0:02:41
FARR LAP	1:13:42	14	14	1.5	0:13:44	0:01:20
PANACEA	1:14:23	15	16	2.2	0:14:25	0:00:39
SHEER FORCE	1:15:02	16	20	2.9	0:15:04	0:00:00
CHLOE III	1:17:06	17	17	4.9	0:17:08	0:02:04
DJ2 BOS GLOBAL	1:17:08	18	12	5.0	0:17:10	0:02:06
SUNDOWNER V	1:21:54	19	18	9.7	0:21:56	0:06:52
	Corrected	Corrected
	Time	Position
PANTHER	1:13:41	14
NEXT	1:16:41	17
CADENZA	1:12:07	8
LOVE BYTE	1:12:55	11
SPEARHEAD	1:10:46	2
TOCCATA	1:12:41	9
LEONARDO	1:13:10	12
AKELA	1:11:10	4
OBSESSION	1:16:49	18
GETAWAY SAILING.COM	1:16:25	16
TALON	1:11:30	6
SUMMERSALT	1:10:55	3
SYMBIOSIS	1:11:24	5
FARR LAP	1:12:52	10
PANACEA	1:11:47	7
SHEER FORCE	1:09:59	1
CHLOE III	1:13:21	13
DJ2 BOS GLOBAL	1:17:11	20
SUNDOWNER V	1:16:56	19

Race13 Handicaps

RANSA's updating of the handicap time correction factors (TCF) has, after our middling performance in Race12, eased our factor just slightly. The chart shows how our TCF has generally been easing throughout the series, but it must be remembered that these adjustments are minor, and the full spread of our TCFs only represents one whole minute when converted to times.

Sailors with Disabilities remains the scratch yacht, but she hasn't raced yet. Panther is the effective scratch, expected to finish almost 18mins ahead of Sheer Force.

**7878	SAILORS WITH DISABILITIES	-19.968
*8001	PANTHER	-17.760
*6095	UPLIFT	-14.028
*6900	X3	-12.294
2999	OBSESSION	-10.422
6155	GETAWAY SAILING.COM	-10.056
*6175	LOVE BYTE	-10.026
*8301	CADENZA	-9.774
*5382	TOCCATA	-7.422
*2020	SPEARHEAD	-5.976
4970	AKELA	-5.568
*KA400	SCARLETT O'HARA	-4.884
**6999	TALON	-4.482
*7404	CHANCELLOR	-4.350
*8004	DJ2 BOS GLOBAL	-4.080
*6279	SUMMERSALT	-3.690
*4208	FARR LAP	-3.366
*6472	SYMBIOSIS	-3.252
*80808	PANACEA	-1.944
*MH163	CHLOE III	-1.128
*6182	SUNDOWNER V	-0.402
*316	ANTHANTA VI	-0.168
4037	SHEER FORCE	0.000
*MH304	DISTRACTION	0.576
*5665	AMON RA	1.734

The yachts that the handicapper expects us to finish with are from Panacea to Amon Ra in the above table, but to gain corrected time prizes, and to climb up the pointscores ladders, we have to be amongst Symbiosis, Farr Lap, Summersalt and Bos Global.

Race12 Results

In Race12, Nick's aerodynamic hairdo did not help much, and Sheer Force's elapsed time was 4.55 minutes slower than the average for the finishers, which is almostly exactly our average. We have to do more than 3 minutes better than this to place on corrected times. Last night, we were 4:22 behind the handicap winner Scarlett O'Hara, and 3:15 behind the 3rd place getter, on corrected times.

Sheer Force finished 12th outright out of the 19. so we beat a good number of yachts across the line, more than the handicap system predicted. The time correction factors predicted that we would have come 2nd last, so, in finishing 6 places ahead of expectations, this was a pretty good race for us. There were many other such discrepancies in this race: Chloe III and Symbiosis finished 5 places ahead of prediction. and 6 yachts crossed the line between 3 and 5 places behind their prediction. These placings are shown in the table below which, as usual, is in across the finish line order. Despite all these discrepancies, the handicapper did better than usual in reducing the outright time spread of 31:26 to a corrected spread of 12:05, a score of 62%.

Results Race12	Elapsed	Outright	Handicap	Diff fm	Mins	Rel to
	Time	Place	Predict	Fleet	behind	Sheer
			Place	Average	winner	Force
GETAWAY SAILING No2	0:45:24	1	1	-18.7	0:00:00	0:23:14
PANTHER	0:50:10	2	2	-13.9	0:04:46	0:18:28
TOCCATA	0:57:24	3	6	-6.7	0:12:00	0:11:14
CADENZA	0:58:35	4	4	-5.5	0:13:11	0:10:03
LOVE BYTE	0:58:59	5	3	-5.1	0:13:35	0:09:39
SPEARHEAD	0:59:34	6	8	-4.5	0:14:10	0:09:04
SCARLETT O'HARA	0:59:40	7	10	-4.4	0:14:16	0:08:58
LEONARDO	1:00:41	8	5	-3.4	0:15:17	0:07:57
SYMBIOSIS	1:02:00	9	14	-2.1	0:16:36	0:06:38
AKELA	1:03:46	10	7	-0.3	0:18:22	0:04:52
CHLOE III	1:06:59	11	16	2.9	0:21:35	0:01:39
SHEER FORCE	1:08:38	12	18	4.6	0:23:14	0:00:00
TALON	1:08:41	13	9	4.6	0:23:17	0:00:03
DJ2 BOS GLOBAL	1:09:12	14	11	5.1	0:23:48	0:00:34
PANACEA	1:09:30	15	15	5.4	0:24:06	0:00:52
FARR LAP	1:12:23	16	13	8.3	0:26:59	0:03:45
RYA	1:12:32	17	12	8.5	0:27:08	0:03:54
SUNDOWNER V	1:16:33	18	17	12.5	0:31:09	0:07:55
AMON RA	1:16:50	19	19	12.8	0:31:26	0:08:12
	Corrected	Corrected
	Time	Position
GETAWAY SAILING No2	1:01:17	5
PANTHER	1:01:23	6
TOCCATA	1:00:33	2
CADENZA	1:03:51	8
LOVE BYTE	1:05:08	11
SPEARHEAD	1:00:57	3
SCARLETT O'HARA	0:59:49	1
LEONARDO	1:04:19	10
SYMBIOSIS	1:01:08	4
AKELA	1:05:23	12
CHLOE III	1:03:25	7
SHEER FORCE	1:04:11	9
TALON	1:09:11	14
DJ2 BOS GLOBAL	1:09:14	15
PANACEA	1:07:06	13
FARR LAP	1:11:34	17
RYA	1:11:44	18
SUNDOWNER V	1:11:54	19
AMON RA	1:09:26	16

In predicting the pointscore after Race12, I have made certain assumptions. Firstly, I treated GetawaySailing.com as a non-starter, because the yacht by that name which competed last night is not the usual one. I don't imagine you can swap yachts in this pointscore! And, I gave Anthanta IV the 4 points for being duty yacht. Race12 has had virtually no effect on the pointscore sequence.

After Race11, Sheer Force was equal 5th with Anthanta, but her lesser points in Race12 means we will slip one spot to 5th. We will be on 47 points, and that will be 13 points behind the series leader Spearhead. There are two races in the pointscores to go, and the yachts above us have slightly better drop positions, so it's a tough ask to climb the ladder from here.

It can be done. For example, considering everyone's drops, if Sheer Force wins on handicap next week, we will overtake Chloe and Symbiosis if they come 9th or worse, Panther if she comes 7th, Anthanta if she comes 6th. We can't overtake Spearhead in one race.

Points after Race12	Points	Place	Lowest Drop
SPEARHEAD	34	1	8
CHLOE III	40	2	11
SYMBIOSIS	40	2	13
PANTHER	42	4	9
ANTHANTA VI	43	5	15
SHEER FORCE	47	6	13
SUMMERSALT	52	7	24
CADENZA	54	8	11
FARR LAP	56	9	24
TOCCATA	63	10	16
SCARLETT O'HARA	66	11	24
SUNDOWNER V	67	12	24
AMON RA	77	13	15
DJ2 BOS GLOBAL	83	14	17
LOVE BYTE	85	15	24
GETAWAY SAILING.COM	89	16	24
UPLIFT	91	17	24
OBSESSION	116	18	24
PANACEA	131	19	24
X3	140	20	24
CHANCELLOR	148	21	24
AKELA	166	22	24
DISTRACTION	178	23	24

Race12 Handicaps

As predicted, Sheer Force's 4th placing in Race11 has led to us being penalised by the handicapper for Race12. The increase in our time correction factor (TCF) is shown most clearly in the graph. The only yachts which suffered greater increases in TCF were Anthanta IV (1st last week) and Bos Global (3rd last week).

That change has pushed Anthanta below us in the handicap list, when calculated in minutes relative to Sheer Force, so she now has to beat us to tie with us on corrected times (but there's less than a second in it!). Anthanta is duty boat this week, so she gets a gift 4 points if she doesn't race. Our peer group is the bottom 7 yachts in the table below. As previously, if we are to take out a prize, we need to finish amongst Symbiosis, Farr Lap, Summersalt and Bos Global.

**7878	SAILORS WITH DISABILITIES	-19.812
*8001	PANTHER	-17.310
*6095	UPLIFT	-13.872
*6900	X3	-12.138
2999	OBSESSION	-10.266
*6175	LOVE BYTE	-10.140
6155	GETAWAY SAILING.COM	-9.900
*8301	CADENZA	-9.282
*5382	TOCCATA	-7.182
4970	AKELA	-5.412
*2020	SPEARHEAD	-5.274
**6999	TALON	-4.326
*7404	CHANCELLOR	-4.194
*KA400	SCARLETT O'HARA	-4.038
*8004	DJ2 BOS GLOBAL	-3.924
*6279	SUMMERSALT	-3.534
*4208	FARR LAP	-3.210
*6472	SYMBIOSIS	-3.054
*80808	PANACEA	-1.818
*MH163	CHLOE III	-0.696
*6182	SUNDOWNER V	-0.246
*316	ANTHANTA VI	-0.012
4037	SHEER FORCE	0.000
*MH304	DISTRACTION	0.732
*5665	AMON RA	1.890

 

See you Friday!

Race11 Results

Coming 4th on corrected times is a great result for Sheer Force, but getting on the wrong side of Eagle Rock in our run to the line in Race11 certainly cost us 2nd place on corrected times, because our time was only 18 seconds behind the 2nd placegetter, Spearhead.

Sheer Force's 4th place will promote her to equal 5th in the full series pointscore when RANSA publish the revised figures, up from 9th. We will be only 8 points behind the leader. In fact, the Race has shaken the whole pointscore position up. Because they were non-starters, previous pointscore leader Sundowner V will plummet to 10th position, and previous 2nd position Uplift will plummet to 15th! These big moves occur because much of the field have points within a relatively tight spread. With only 4 races to go in the pointscore, many yachts are within string distance of first place, including of course, Sheer Force. The table below shows how the pointscore will look when published.

Points after Race11	Points	Place	Lowest Drop
SPEARHEAD	31	1	8
CHLOE III	34	2	11
SYMBIOSIS	36	3	13
PANTHER	37	4	9
SHEER FORCE	39	5	13
ANTHANTA VI	39	5	15
FARR LAP	42	7	24
SUMMERSALT	42	7	10
CADENZA	47	9	11
SUNDOWNER V	52	10	24
TOCCATA	61	11	16
AMON RA	64	12	15
SCARLETT O'HARA	65	13	24
GETAWAY SAILING.COM	65	13	24
UPLIFT	67	15	24
DJ2 BOS GLOBAL	71	16	17
LOVE BYTE	76	17	24
OBSESSION	92	18	24
X3	116	19	24
PANACEA	120	20	24
CHANCELLOR	132	21	24
DISTRACTION	154	22	24
AKELA	156	23	24

In terms of outright positioning, Sheer Force finished 11th out of 15, and we were exactly 15 minutes behind Panther, which got the gun as usual. We were measured as 5 seconds ahead of Farr Lap, and 44 seconds behind Anthanta IV. Our time was a smidgeon under 4 minutes slower than the fleet's average which is almost a minute better than we usually do. In this particular field of yachts, the graph shows that we can be a placegetter if we cross the line better than 3-4 minutes slower than the entire fleet's average. Given that our average value for this statistic is 4.64 minutes (our best, 1.68 mins, our worst 7.80 mins), we need to beat our average race time by about a minute. The table below is, as usual, in the accross-the-line order.

Results Race11	Elapsed	Outright	Handicap	Diff fm	Mins	Rel to
	Time	Place	Predict	Fleet	behind	Sheer
			Place	Average	winner	Force
PANTHER	0:57:14	1	1	-11.0	0:00:00	0:15:00
CALIBRE	1:01:21	2	2	-6.9	0:04:07	0:10:53
LOVE BYTE	1:02:38	3	3	-5.6	0:05:24	0:09:36
CADENZA	1:05:18	4	5	-2.9	0:08:04	0:06:56
SPEARHEAD	1:05:26	5	6	-2.8	0:08:12	0:06:48
GETAWAY SAILING.COM	1:06:35	6	4	-1.7	0:09:21	0:05:39
DJ2 BOS GLOBAL	1:07:33	7	9	-0.7	0:10:19	0:04:41
SUMMERSALT	1:08:49	8	8	0.6	0:11:35	0:03:25
PANACEA	1:10:27	9	11	2.2	0:13:13	0:01:47
ANTHANTA VI	1:11:30	10	14	3.3	0:14:16	0:00:44
SHEER FORCE	1:12:14	11	13	4.0	0:15:00	0:00:00
FARR LAP	1:12:19	12	7	4.1	0:15:05	0:00:05
SYMBIOSIS	1:13:19	13	10	5.1	0:16:05	0:01:05
CHLOE III	1:13:45	14	12	5.5	0:16:31	0:01:31
AMON RA	1:15:15	15	15	7.0	0:18:01	0:03:01
	Corrected	Corrected
	Time	Position
PANTHER	1:10:01	11
CALIBRE	1:07:42	5
LOVE BYTE	1:09:04	9
CADENZA	1:11:50	12
SPEARHEAD	1:06:42	2
GETAWAY SAILING.COM	1:13:15	15
DJ2 BOS GLOBAL	1:06:48	3
SUMMERSALT	1:08:09	7
PANACEA	1:07:53	6
ANTHANTA VI	1:05:53	1
SHEER FORCE	1:06:59	4
FARR LAP	1:11:52	13
SYMBIOSIS	1:12:18	14
CHLOE III	1:09:50	10
AMON RA	1:08:25	8

The actual finishing sequence did not match the handicapper's predictions very well. The discrepancies highlight the "unusual" performances. Farr Lap was the biggest surprise, passing the finish boat 5 places worse than expected. Anthanta IV was 4 places better than expected. Symbioisis was 3 places worse than expected. All the rest were within 2 places of prediction. Sheer Force was 2 places better than expected. My score for the handicapper in Race 11 was 59%, the 2nd best this series - the elapsed time spread was 18:01, and the corrected time spread was 07:22.

The new equipment went very well, and some more improvements are envisaged. The many tacks up the harbour gave the crew plenty of exercise, and provided a boost for David T's fitness program!

Race11 Handicaps

Coming thirteenth in Race 10 helped Sheer Force's time correction factor (TCF) take another step downwards (see graph), along with Anthanta IV(12th in Race 10), Toccata(9th), Amon Ra(10th), Getaway Sailing(6th), Panther(7th), Bos Global(11th) and Panacea(8th). On the other side, Chloe III(1st), Farr Lap(3rd), Summersalt(4th) were penalised with slightly tougher TCFs. Two "new" yachts have appeared in this week's handicaps, Talon, and Sailors with Disabilities (previously Kaz?). Sailors with Disabilities takes over from Panther as the scratch yacht in Division 1, by about 2.5 minutes.

**7878	SAILORS WITH DISABILITIES	-20.280
*8001	PANTHER	-17.754
*6095	UPLIFT	-14.340
*6900	X3	-12.606
2999	OBSESSION	-10.734
*6175	LOVE BYTE	-10.518
6155	GETAWAY SAILING.COM	-10.368
*8301	CADENZA	-10.356
*5382	TOCCATA	-7.650
4970	AKELA	-5.880
**6999	TALON	-5.574
*2020	SPEARHEAD	-5.514
*7404	CHANCELLOR	-4.662
*KA400	SCARLETT O'HARA	-4.506
*4208	FARR LAP	-3.978
*6279	SUMMERSALT	-3.780
*8004	DJ2 BOS GLOBAL	-3.690
*6472	SYMBIOSIS	-3.522
*80808	PANACEA	-2.166
*MH163	CHLOE III	-1.170
*6182	SUNDOWNER V	-0.714
4037	SHEER FORCE	0.000
*MH304	DISTRACTION	0.264
*316	ANTHANTA VI	0.360
*5665	AMON RA	1.098

The table above, sorted by minutes relative to Sheer Force shows that Chloe's good performances means that she now has to beat Sheer Force by over a minute, whereas previously, Sheer Force has had to finish in front. Our peer group is unchanged, but to finish in the money, we need to be among Farr Lap, Summersalt, Bos Global and Symbiosis. Hopefully, the improvements to Sheer Force will help us achieve this!

Race10 Results

Race10 saw windy conditions again, with maybe 20kn coming from the north east. There was no threat of a thunderstorm. After being way overpowered last week, skipper David T decided to reef the main on Sheer Force and use the No.2 Genoa. This arrangement served us well on the work up to the Lady Bay mark, and to come back, we removed the reef and put the pole out. We ran into trouble after rounding Clark Island when the mounting of the starbord side Genoa sheet pulley broke with a loud bang. This forced an unscheduled tack which led to us having to do more tacks that we would have probably preferred to avoid, slowing us down. It took us a long time to get around Bradleys Head, contributing to our modest 13th placing on corrected times.

The race saw18 starters in Division 1, and 3 dnf's. Sheer Force was the last of 7 yachts with corrected times within the 1hr09 minute, so our finishing position could have been 7th if we were a minute faster. On corrected times, Anthanta only beat us by 1 second, and Bos Global by 4 seconds.

Across the line, Sheer Force was also 13th of the 15. We trailed Panther by 18mins, and Farr Lap by 6mins. The average elapsed time for this race was 1:08:51 (slowest in the series), and Sheer Force was 5.83mins slower than that, entirely within our normal range, about a minute worse than our average. The handicapper expected Sheer Force to come 12th in this field. Cadenza apparently had difficulties, crossing the line 11th instead of her expected 3rd. Symbiosis also finished 4 places worse than expected. Yachts finishing well ahead of their handicap predictions were Chloe (4) and Farr Lap and Summersalt (both 3). The handicapper's score was 36%, achieved by reducing an outright spread of 20:01 to a corrected spread of 12:47.

The table below gives the Division 1 results for Race 10, sorted by elapsed time:-

Results Race10	Elapsed	Outright	Handicap	Diff fm	Mins	Rel to
	Time	Place	Predict	Fleet	behind	Sheer
			Place	Average	winner	Force
PANTHER	0:56:13	1	1	-12.6	0:00:00	0:18:28
OBSESSION	1:01:37	2	4	-7.2	0:05:24	0:13:04
GETAWAY SAILING.COM	1:02:16	3	2	-6.6	0:06:03	0:12:25
TOCCATA	1:05:23	4	5	-3.5	0:09:10	0:09:18
SPEARHEAD	1:07:24	5	6	-1.5	0:11:11	0:07:17
FARR LAP	1:08:42	6	9	-0.2	0:12:29	0:05:59
SUMMERSALT	1:08:46	7	10	-0.1	0:12:33	0:05:55
DJ2 BOS GLOBAL	1:10:30	8	7	1.6	0:14:17	0:04:11
CHLOE III	1:10:46	9	13	1.9	0:14:33	0:03:55
PANACEA	1:11:12	10	11	2.3	0:14:59	0:03:29
CADENZA	1:11:28	11	3	2.6	0:15:15	0:03:13
SYMBIOSIS	1:11:53	12	8	3.0	0:15:40	0:02:48
SHEER FORCE	1:14:41	13	12	5.8	0:18:28	0:00:00
ANTHANTA VI	1:15:43	14	14	6.9	0:19:30	0:01:02
AMON RA	1:16:14	15	15	7.4	0:20:01	0:01:33
	Corrected	Corrected
	Time	Position
PANTHER	1:09:06	7
OBSESSION	1:07:35	2
GETAWAY SAILING.COM	1:08:38	6
TOCCATA	1:09:35	9
SPEARHEAD	1:08:25	5
FARR LAP	1:07:42	3
SUMMERSALT	1:07:45	4
DJ2 BOS GLOBAL	1:09:55	11
CHLOE III	1:05:50	1
PANACEA	1:09:18	8
CADENZA	1:18:37	15
SYMBIOSIS	1:11:10	14
SHEER FORCE	1:09:59	13
ANTHANTA VI	1:09:58	12
AMON RA	1:09:41	10

When they get updated, Race 10 will see some major moves on the pointscore. Chloe's excellent and improving performance will now get her into first place on 25 points, pushing Sundowner off that perch. Farr Lap climbs from 11th to 6th place, but Uplift falls from 2nd to 12th place. Sheer Force will climb two rungs on the ladder from 9th to 7th place, on 35 points, well within striking distance of the top with 5 races to go.

Points after Race10	Points	Place	Lowest Drop
CHLOE III	25	1	11
SUNDOWNER V	28	2	24
PANTHER	28	2	9
SYMBIOSIS	29	4	7
SPEARHEAD	29	4	8
FARR LAP	30	6	24
SHEER FORCE	35	7	13
CADENZA	36	8	11
SUMMERSALT	36	8	10
ANTHANTA VI	38	10	15
SCARLETT O'HARA	41	11	24
UPLIFT	43	12	24
TOCCATA	46	13	15
GETAWAY SAILING.COM	51	14	24
AMON RA	57	15	15
LOVE BYTE	66	16	24
DJ2 BOS GLOBAL	68	17	17
OBSESSION	68	17	24
X3	90	19	24
CHANCELLOR	108	20	24
PANACEA	115	21	24
DISTRACTION	130	22	24
AKELA	132	23	24

Chloe's great season is highlighted in the graph which shows Difference from Fleet Average. Chloe's performance shows a steady and clear improvement from race to race.

After the race, the two Davids effected excellent repairs to the broken pulley mounting.

Race10 Handicaps

As usual, the finishers in last week's race have had some minor adjustments to their time correction factors. The factors for X3 (14), Amon Ra (12), Panther (11) and Summersalt (8) have eased, and those for Bos Global (1), Farr Lap (3), Obsession (5), Chloe (2), Sheer Force (6), Symbiosis (7) and Spearhead (4)have tightened. The numbers in brackets how each yacht's placing on corrected time in Race09.

The graph shows how Sheer Force's time correction factor has drifted down through the series, easing our handicap slightly. The TCF's are shown on the right axis, and the bars on the graph show our corrected time placing (left axis) for each race.

The changes are very minor, and leave Panther as the scratch yacht, giving Sheer Force a start of 17.5 minutes. Our peer group is also unchanged: Sundowner has to beat us by 8 secs, and we have to beat Chloe, Anthanta, Distraction and Amon Ra by up to 1.4 mins. To be among the prizes, we need to be sailing amongst Farr Lap, Bos Global and Scarlett O'Hara.

The handicapper expects Sheer Force to finish 19th out of 23 in a complete field. The table below showns the start in minutes each yacht gives Sheer Force. We give a start to those below us in the table. As usual, these starts are calculated on the roughly correct assumption that the race duration is 60mins.

*8001	PANTHER	-17.538
*6095	UPLIFT	-13.764
*6900	X3	-12.030
*6175	LOVE BYTE	-9.942
6155	GETAWAY SAILING.COM	-9.918
*8301	CADENZA	-9.780
2999	OBSESSION	-9.588
*5382	TOCCATA	-7.638
4970	AKELA	-5.304
*2020	SPEARHEAD	-4.680
*7404	CHANCELLOR	-4.086
*KA400	SCARLETT O'HARA	-3.930
*8004	DJ2 BOS GLOBAL	-3.282
*6472	SYMBIOSIS	-3.186
*4208	FARR LAP	-2.904
*6279	SUMMERSALT	-2.898
*80808	PANACEA	-2.172
*6182	SUNDOWNER V	-0.138
4037	SHEER FORCE	0.000
*MH163	CHLOE III	0.408
*316	ANTHANTA VI	0.780
*MH304	DISTRACTION	0.840
*5665	AMON RA	1.374

See you on Friday. Let's hope the winds are a little milder than they were for Race09!

Race09 Results

We were greeted with a very strong north easterly before the start of Race09. The white caps on the harbour were large, and David T estimated the wind at 35kn. It looked too dangerous to sail, but the wind eased a little to maybe 25kn by start time, and we sailed the course carefully, still overpowered, with the No2 Genoa and full Main. At the club later, Janet congratulated those yachts which had voluntarily withdrawn in the difficult conditions - we noticed Anthanta IV motoring off before the race, and no doubt there were others.

That said, once we got going, Sheer Force handled the conditions very well, the crew adapted to their new roles, and we felt quite comfortable going up the harbour. We came 6th on handicap after being about a minute behind at the start due to the extreme conditions. But for that minute, we might have finished 3rd on corrected times. As it was, only 7 seconds of corrected time spanned Spearhead, Obsession, Sheer Force and Symbiosis, so it was very tight in the 4th - 7th positions.

The race itself had 15 finishers in Division 1, and the average elapsed time was a typical 1:05:02. Sheer Force recorded a time across the line some 3.68 minutes slower than the fleet average. This is a minute better than our own average. This good result is partly affected by Cadenza's exceptionally slow race (she had very little sail up) which would have slowed the fleet average. Cadenza was 9.3 mins slower than the fleet average (as she was in Race01), whereas she is usually 5-10 minutes faster than the fleet average. There were a couple of new yachts in this Division 1 field, Estate Master and Attitude.

Sheer Force was 11th across the line in Division 1, almost 15 minutes behind Panther. Nearest to us were Chloe (2 mins ahead), and Sundowner (3 mins behind). The handicapper's predictions for the finish order was upset by the windy conditions. Cadenza was last to finish, 11 places behind predicted, and DJ2 Bos Global, Farr Lapp and Chloe finished 3-4 places ahead of prediction. My other 'measure' of handicapper performance is the extent to which the spread of elapsed times is reduced by the time corrections. Unfortunately, the elapsed time spread of 20:31, thanks to Cadenza, became a spread of 21:44 after correction, giving the handicapper a negative 3.5% score, the worst since Race04 of last year's twilights.

The table below is, as usual, the Division 1 finishers in elapsed time order.

Results Race09	Elapsed	Outright	Handicap	Diff fm	Mins	Rel to
	Time	Place	Predict	Fleet	behind	Sheer
			Place	Average	winner	Force
PANTHER	0:53:49	1	1	-11.2	0:00:00	0:14:54
ESTATE MASTER	0:57:30	2	3	-7.5	0:03:41	0:11:13
OBSESSION	0:58:41	3	5	-6.4	0:04:52	0:10:02
X3	0:59:53	4	2	-5.2	0:06:04	0:08:50
DJ2 BOS GLOBAL	1:01:42	5	9	-3.3	0:07:53	0:07:01
SPEARHEAD	1:03:08	6	6	-1.9	0:09:19	0:05:35
FARR LAP	1:04:29	7	10	-0.6	0:10:40	0:04:14
SYMBIOSIS	1:04:51	8	7	-0.2	0:11:02	0:03:52
SUMMERSALT	1:05:54	9	8	0.9	0:12:05	0:02:49
CHLOE III	1:06:38	10	13	1.6	0:12:49	0:02:05
SHEER FORCE	1:08:43	11	12	3.7	0:14:54	0:00:00
SUNDOWNER V	1:11:35	12	11	6.5	0:17:46	0:02:52
ATTITUDE	1:11:43	13	14	6.7	0:17:54	0:03:00
AMON RA	1:12:40	14	15	7.6	0:18:51	0:03:57
CADENZA	1:14:20	15	4	9.3	0:20:31	0:05:37
	Corrected	Corrected
	Time	Position
PANTHER	1:06:15	11
ESTATE MASTER	1:05:23	9
OBSESSION	1:04:02	5
X3	1:08:34	14
DJ2 BOS GLOBAL	1:00:32	1
SPEARHEAD	1:04:01	4
FARR LAP	1:03:10	3
SYMBIOSIS	1:04:08	7
SUMMERSALT	1:04:58	8
CHLOE III	1:01:40	2
SHEER FORCE	1:04:07	6
SUNDOWNER V	1:07:14	13
ATTITUDE	1:05:54	10
AMON RA	1:06:42	12
CADENZA	1:21:46	15

When RANSA updates the pointscore, I expect that Sheer Force will maintain her 8th position, equal with Anthanta. Missing another race will now bump Uplift from top position to be replaced by Sundowner. At 26 points, Sheer Force is well within striking distance of the leaders (17-21 points) which don't have any or many good drops left to save them from the effects of missed races.

Points after Race09	Points	Place	Lowest Drop
SUNDOWNER V	17	1	11
UPLIFT	19	2	24
PANTHER	21	3	9
SYMBIOSIS	22	4	7
SPEARHEAD	24	5	8
CHLOE III	24	5	11
CADENZA	25	7	11
ANTHANTA VI	26	8	15
SHEER FORCE	26	8	9
SCARLETT O'HARA	27	10	14
FARR LAP	27	10	24
SUMMERSALT	32	12	10
TOCCATA	37	13	15
GETAWAY SAILING.COM	45	14	24
AMON RA	47	15	15
LOVE BYTE	50	16	24
DJ2 BOS GLOBAL	57	17	17
OBSESSION	66	18	24
X3	74	19	24
CHANCELLOR	84	20	24
DISTRACTION	106	21	24
PANACEA	107	22	24
AKELA	108	23	24