Race12 Results

In Race12, Nick's aerodynamic hairdo did not help much, and Sheer Force's elapsed time was 4.55 minutes slower than the average for the finishers, which is almostly exactly our average. We have to do more than 3 minutes better than this to place on corrected times. Last night, we were 4:22 behind the handicap winner Scarlett O'Hara, and 3:15 behind the 3rd place getter, on corrected times.

Sheer Force finished 12th outright out of the 19. so we beat a good number of yachts across the line, more than the handicap system predicted. The time correction factors predicted that we would have come 2nd last, so, in finishing 6 places ahead of expectations, this was a pretty good race for us. There were many other such discrepancies in this race: Chloe III and Symbiosis finished 5 places ahead of prediction. and 6 yachts crossed the line between 3 and 5 places behind their prediction. These placings are shown in the table below which, as usual, is in across the finish line order. Despite all these discrepancies, the handicapper did better than usual in reducing the outright time spread of 31:26 to a corrected spread of 12:05, a score of 62%.

Results Race12	Elapsed	Outright	Handicap	Diff fm	Mins	Rel to
	Time	Place	Predict	Fleet	behind	Sheer
			Place	Average	winner	Force
GETAWAY SAILING No2	0:45:24	1	1	-18.7	0:00:00	0:23:14
PANTHER	0:50:10	2	2	-13.9	0:04:46	0:18:28
TOCCATA	0:57:24	3	6	-6.7	0:12:00	0:11:14
CADENZA	0:58:35	4	4	-5.5	0:13:11	0:10:03
LOVE BYTE	0:58:59	5	3	-5.1	0:13:35	0:09:39
SPEARHEAD	0:59:34	6	8	-4.5	0:14:10	0:09:04
SCARLETT O'HARA	0:59:40	7	10	-4.4	0:14:16	0:08:58
LEONARDO	1:00:41	8	5	-3.4	0:15:17	0:07:57
SYMBIOSIS	1:02:00	9	14	-2.1	0:16:36	0:06:38
AKELA	1:03:46	10	7	-0.3	0:18:22	0:04:52
CHLOE III	1:06:59	11	16	2.9	0:21:35	0:01:39
SHEER FORCE	1:08:38	12	18	4.6	0:23:14	0:00:00
TALON	1:08:41	13	9	4.6	0:23:17	0:00:03
DJ2 BOS GLOBAL	1:09:12	14	11	5.1	0:23:48	0:00:34
PANACEA	1:09:30	15	15	5.4	0:24:06	0:00:52
FARR LAP	1:12:23	16	13	8.3	0:26:59	0:03:45
RYA	1:12:32	17	12	8.5	0:27:08	0:03:54
SUNDOWNER V	1:16:33	18	17	12.5	0:31:09	0:07:55
AMON RA	1:16:50	19	19	12.8	0:31:26	0:08:12
	Corrected	Corrected
	Time	Position
GETAWAY SAILING No2	1:01:17	5
PANTHER	1:01:23	6
TOCCATA	1:00:33	2
CADENZA	1:03:51	8
LOVE BYTE	1:05:08	11
SPEARHEAD	1:00:57	3
SCARLETT O'HARA	0:59:49	1
LEONARDO	1:04:19	10
SYMBIOSIS	1:01:08	4
AKELA	1:05:23	12
CHLOE III	1:03:25	7
SHEER FORCE	1:04:11	9
TALON	1:09:11	14
DJ2 BOS GLOBAL	1:09:14	15
PANACEA	1:07:06	13
FARR LAP	1:11:34	17
RYA	1:11:44	18
SUNDOWNER V	1:11:54	19
AMON RA	1:09:26	16

In predicting the pointscore after Race12, I have made certain assumptions. Firstly, I treated GetawaySailing.com as a non-starter, because the yacht by that name which competed last night is not the usual one. I don't imagine you can swap yachts in this pointscore! And, I gave Anthanta IV the 4 points for being duty yacht. Race12 has had virtually no effect on the pointscore sequence.

After Race11, Sheer Force was equal 5th with Anthanta, but her lesser points in Race12 means we will slip one spot to 5th. We will be on 47 points, and that will be 13 points behind the series leader Spearhead. There are two races in the pointscores to go, and the yachts above us have slightly better drop positions, so it's a tough ask to climb the ladder from here.

It can be done. For example, considering everyone's drops, if Sheer Force wins on handicap next week, we will overtake Chloe and Symbiosis if they come 9th or worse, Panther if she comes 7th, Anthanta if she comes 6th. We can't overtake Spearhead in one race.

Points after Race12	Points	Place	Lowest Drop
SPEARHEAD	34	1	8
CHLOE III	40	2	11
SYMBIOSIS	40	2	13
PANTHER	42	4	9
ANTHANTA VI	43	5	15
SHEER FORCE	47	6	13
SUMMERSALT	52	7	24
CADENZA	54	8	11
FARR LAP	56	9	24
TOCCATA	63	10	16
SCARLETT O'HARA	66	11	24
SUNDOWNER V	67	12	24
AMON RA	77	13	15
DJ2 BOS GLOBAL	83	14	17
LOVE BYTE	85	15	24
GETAWAY SAILING.COM	89	16	24
UPLIFT	91	17	24
OBSESSION	116	18	24
PANACEA	131	19	24
X3	140	20	24
CHANCELLOR	148	21	24
AKELA	166	22	24
DISTRACTION	178	23	24