Race12 Results

In Race12, Nick's aerodynamic hairdo did not help much, and Sheer Force's elapsed time was 4.55 minutes slower than the average for the finishers, which is almostly exactly our average. We have to do more than 3 minutes better than this to place on corrected times. Last night, we were 4:22 behind the handicap winner Scarlett O'Hara, and 3:15 behind the 3rd place getter, on corrected times.

Sheer Force finished 12th outright out of the 19. so we beat a good number of yachts across the line, more than the handicap system predicted. The time correction factors predicted that we would have come 2nd last, so, in finishing 6 places ahead of expectations, this was a pretty good race for us. There were many other such discrepancies in this race: Chloe III and Symbiosis finished 5 places ahead of prediction. and 6 yachts crossed the line between 3 and 5 places behind their prediction. These placings are shown in the table below which, as usual, is in across the finish line order. Despite all these discrepancies, the handicapper did better than usual in reducing the outright time spread of 31:26 to a corrected spread of 12:05, a score of 62%.

Results Race12	Elapsed	Outright	Handicap	Diff fm	Mins	Rel to
	Time	Place	Predict	Fleet	behind	Sheer
			Place	Average	winner	Force
GETAWAY SAILING No2	0:45:24	1	1	-18.7	0:00:00	0:23:14
PANTHER	0:50:10	2	2	-13.9	0:04:46	0:18:28
TOCCATA	0:57:24	3	6	-6.7	0:12:00	0:11:14
CADENZA	0:58:35	4	4	-5.5	0:13:11	0:10:03
LOVE BYTE	0:58:59	5	3	-5.1	0:13:35	0:09:39
SPEARHEAD	0:59:34	6	8	-4.5	0:14:10	0:09:04
SCARLETT O'HARA	0:59:40	7	10	-4.4	0:14:16	0:08:58
LEONARDO	1:00:41	8	5	-3.4	0:15:17	0:07:57
SYMBIOSIS	1:02:00	9	14	-2.1	0:16:36	0:06:38
AKELA	1:03:46	10	7	-0.3	0:18:22	0:04:52
CHLOE III	1:06:59	11	16	2.9	0:21:35	0:01:39
SHEER FORCE	1:08:38	12	18	4.6	0:23:14	0:00:00
TALON	1:08:41	13	9	4.6	0:23:17	0:00:03
DJ2 BOS GLOBAL	1:09:12	14	11	5.1	0:23:48	0:00:34
PANACEA	1:09:30	15	15	5.4	0:24:06	0:00:52
FARR LAP	1:12:23	16	13	8.3	0:26:59	0:03:45
RYA	1:12:32	17	12	8.5	0:27:08	0:03:54
SUNDOWNER V	1:16:33	18	17	12.5	0:31:09	0:07:55
AMON RA	1:16:50	19	19	12.8	0:31:26	0:08:12
	Corrected	Corrected
	Time	Position
GETAWAY SAILING No2	1:01:17	5
PANTHER	1:01:23	6
TOCCATA	1:00:33	2
CADENZA	1:03:51	8
LOVE BYTE	1:05:08	11
SPEARHEAD	1:00:57	3
SCARLETT O'HARA	0:59:49	1
LEONARDO	1:04:19	10
SYMBIOSIS	1:01:08	4
AKELA	1:05:23	12
CHLOE III	1:03:25	7
SHEER FORCE	1:04:11	9
TALON	1:09:11	14
DJ2 BOS GLOBAL	1:09:14	15
PANACEA	1:07:06	13
FARR LAP	1:11:34	17
RYA	1:11:44	18
SUNDOWNER V	1:11:54	19
AMON RA	1:09:26	16

In predicting the pointscore after Race12, I have made certain assumptions. Firstly, I treated GetawaySailing.com as a non-starter, because the yacht by that name which competed last night is not the usual one. I don't imagine you can swap yachts in this pointscore! And, I gave Anthanta IV the 4 points for being duty yacht. Race12 has had virtually no effect on the pointscore sequence.

After Race11, Sheer Force was equal 5th with Anthanta, but her lesser points in Race12 means we will slip one spot to 5th. We will be on 47 points, and that will be 13 points behind the series leader Spearhead. There are two races in the pointscores to go, and the yachts above us have slightly better drop positions, so it's a tough ask to climb the ladder from here.

It can be done. For example, considering everyone's drops, if Sheer Force wins on handicap next week, we will overtake Chloe and Symbiosis if they come 9th or worse, Panther if she comes 7th, Anthanta if she comes 6th. We can't overtake Spearhead in one race.

Points after Race12	Points	Place	Lowest Drop
SPEARHEAD	34	1	8
CHLOE III	40	2	11
SYMBIOSIS	40	2	13
PANTHER	42	4	9
ANTHANTA VI	43	5	15
SHEER FORCE	47	6	13
SUMMERSALT	52	7	24
CADENZA	54	8	11
FARR LAP	56	9	24
TOCCATA	63	10	16
SCARLETT O'HARA	66	11	24
SUNDOWNER V	67	12	24
AMON RA	77	13	15
DJ2 BOS GLOBAL	83	14	17
LOVE BYTE	85	15	24
GETAWAY SAILING.COM	89	16	24
UPLIFT	91	17	24
OBSESSION	116	18	24
PANACEA	131	19	24
X3	140	20	24
CHANCELLOR	148	21	24
AKELA	166	22	24
DISTRACTION	178	23	24

Race12 Handicaps

As predicted, Sheer Force's 4th placing in Race11 has led to us being penalised by the handicapper for Race12. The increase in our time correction factor (TCF) is shown most clearly in the graph. The only yachts which suffered greater increases in TCF were Anthanta IV (1st last week) and Bos Global (3rd last week).

That change has pushed Anthanta below us in the handicap list, when calculated in minutes relative to Sheer Force, so she now has to beat us to tie with us on corrected times (but there's less than a second in it!). Anthanta is duty boat this week, so she gets a gift 4 points if she doesn't race. Our peer group is the bottom 7 yachts in the table below. As previously, if we are to take out a prize, we need to finish amongst Symbiosis, Farr Lap, Summersalt and Bos Global.

**7878	SAILORS WITH DISABILITIES	-19.812
*8001	PANTHER	-17.310
*6095	UPLIFT	-13.872
*6900	X3	-12.138
2999	OBSESSION	-10.266
*6175	LOVE BYTE	-10.140
6155	GETAWAY SAILING.COM	-9.900
*8301	CADENZA	-9.282
*5382	TOCCATA	-7.182
4970	AKELA	-5.412
*2020	SPEARHEAD	-5.274
**6999	TALON	-4.326
*7404	CHANCELLOR	-4.194
*KA400	SCARLETT O'HARA	-4.038
*8004	DJ2 BOS GLOBAL	-3.924
*6279	SUMMERSALT	-3.534
*4208	FARR LAP	-3.210
*6472	SYMBIOSIS	-3.054
*80808	PANACEA	-1.818
*MH163	CHLOE III	-0.696
*6182	SUNDOWNER V	-0.246
*316	ANTHANTA VI	-0.012
4037	SHEER FORCE	0.000
*MH304	DISTRACTION	0.732
*5665	AMON RA	1.890

 

See you Friday!

Race11 Results

Coming 4th on corrected times is a great result for Sheer Force, but getting on the wrong side of Eagle Rock in our run to the line in Race11 certainly cost us 2nd place on corrected times, because our time was only 18 seconds behind the 2nd placegetter, Spearhead.

Sheer Force's 4th place will promote her to equal 5th in the full series pointscore when RANSA publish the revised figures, up from 9th. We will be only 8 points behind the leader. In fact, the Race has shaken the whole pointscore position up. Because they were non-starters, previous pointscore leader Sundowner V will plummet to 10th position, and previous 2nd position Uplift will plummet to 15th! These big moves occur because much of the field have points within a relatively tight spread. With only 4 races to go in the pointscore, many yachts are within string distance of first place, including of course, Sheer Force. The table below shows how the pointscore will look when published.

Points after Race11	Points	Place	Lowest Drop
SPEARHEAD	31	1	8
CHLOE III	34	2	11
SYMBIOSIS	36	3	13
PANTHER	37	4	9
SHEER FORCE	39	5	13
ANTHANTA VI	39	5	15
FARR LAP	42	7	24
SUMMERSALT	42	7	10
CADENZA	47	9	11
SUNDOWNER V	52	10	24
TOCCATA	61	11	16
AMON RA	64	12	15
SCARLETT O'HARA	65	13	24
GETAWAY SAILING.COM	65	13	24
UPLIFT	67	15	24
DJ2 BOS GLOBAL	71	16	17
LOVE BYTE	76	17	24
OBSESSION	92	18	24
X3	116	19	24
PANACEA	120	20	24
CHANCELLOR	132	21	24
DISTRACTION	154	22	24
AKELA	156	23	24

In terms of outright positioning, Sheer Force finished 11th out of 15, and we were exactly 15 minutes behind Panther, which got the gun as usual. We were measured as 5 seconds ahead of Farr Lap, and 44 seconds behind Anthanta IV. Our time was a smidgeon under 4 minutes slower than the fleet's average which is almost a minute better than we usually do. In this particular field of yachts, the graph shows that we can be a placegetter if we cross the line better than 3-4 minutes slower than the entire fleet's average. Given that our average value for this statistic is 4.64 minutes (our best, 1.68 mins, our worst 7.80 mins), we need to beat our average race time by about a minute. The table below is, as usual, in the accross-the-line order.

Results Race11	Elapsed	Outright	Handicap	Diff fm	Mins	Rel to
	Time	Place	Predict	Fleet	behind	Sheer
			Place	Average	winner	Force
PANTHER	0:57:14	1	1	-11.0	0:00:00	0:15:00
CALIBRE	1:01:21	2	2	-6.9	0:04:07	0:10:53
LOVE BYTE	1:02:38	3	3	-5.6	0:05:24	0:09:36
CADENZA	1:05:18	4	5	-2.9	0:08:04	0:06:56
SPEARHEAD	1:05:26	5	6	-2.8	0:08:12	0:06:48
GETAWAY SAILING.COM	1:06:35	6	4	-1.7	0:09:21	0:05:39
DJ2 BOS GLOBAL	1:07:33	7	9	-0.7	0:10:19	0:04:41
SUMMERSALT	1:08:49	8	8	0.6	0:11:35	0:03:25
PANACEA	1:10:27	9	11	2.2	0:13:13	0:01:47
ANTHANTA VI	1:11:30	10	14	3.3	0:14:16	0:00:44
SHEER FORCE	1:12:14	11	13	4.0	0:15:00	0:00:00
FARR LAP	1:12:19	12	7	4.1	0:15:05	0:00:05
SYMBIOSIS	1:13:19	13	10	5.1	0:16:05	0:01:05
CHLOE III	1:13:45	14	12	5.5	0:16:31	0:01:31
AMON RA	1:15:15	15	15	7.0	0:18:01	0:03:01
	Corrected	Corrected
	Time	Position
PANTHER	1:10:01	11
CALIBRE	1:07:42	5
LOVE BYTE	1:09:04	9
CADENZA	1:11:50	12
SPEARHEAD	1:06:42	2
GETAWAY SAILING.COM	1:13:15	15
DJ2 BOS GLOBAL	1:06:48	3
SUMMERSALT	1:08:09	7
PANACEA	1:07:53	6
ANTHANTA VI	1:05:53	1
SHEER FORCE	1:06:59	4
FARR LAP	1:11:52	13
SYMBIOSIS	1:12:18	14
CHLOE III	1:09:50	10
AMON RA	1:08:25	8

The actual finishing sequence did not match the handicapper's predictions very well. The discrepancies highlight the "unusual" performances. Farr Lap was the biggest surprise, passing the finish boat 5 places worse than expected. Anthanta IV was 4 places better than expected. Symbioisis was 3 places worse than expected. All the rest were within 2 places of prediction. Sheer Force was 2 places better than expected. My score for the handicapper in Race 11 was 59%, the 2nd best this series - the elapsed time spread was 18:01, and the corrected time spread was 07:22.

The new equipment went very well, and some more improvements are envisaged. The many tacks up the harbour gave the crew plenty of exercise, and provided a boost for David T's fitness program!

Race11 Handicaps

Coming thirteenth in Race 10 helped Sheer Force's time correction factor (TCF) take another step downwards (see graph), along with Anthanta IV(12th in Race 10), Toccata(9th), Amon Ra(10th), Getaway Sailing(6th), Panther(7th), Bos Global(11th) and Panacea(8th). On the other side, Chloe III(1st), Farr Lap(3rd), Summersalt(4th) were penalised with slightly tougher TCFs. Two "new" yachts have appeared in this week's handicaps, Talon, and Sailors with Disabilities (previously Kaz?). Sailors with Disabilities takes over from Panther as the scratch yacht in Division 1, by about 2.5 minutes.

**7878	SAILORS WITH DISABILITIES	-20.280
*8001	PANTHER	-17.754
*6095	UPLIFT	-14.340
*6900	X3	-12.606
2999	OBSESSION	-10.734
*6175	LOVE BYTE	-10.518
6155	GETAWAY SAILING.COM	-10.368
*8301	CADENZA	-10.356
*5382	TOCCATA	-7.650
4970	AKELA	-5.880
**6999	TALON	-5.574
*2020	SPEARHEAD	-5.514
*7404	CHANCELLOR	-4.662
*KA400	SCARLETT O'HARA	-4.506
*4208	FARR LAP	-3.978
*6279	SUMMERSALT	-3.780
*8004	DJ2 BOS GLOBAL	-3.690
*6472	SYMBIOSIS	-3.522
*80808	PANACEA	-2.166
*MH163	CHLOE III	-1.170
*6182	SUNDOWNER V	-0.714
4037	SHEER FORCE	0.000
*MH304	DISTRACTION	0.264
*316	ANTHANTA VI	0.360
*5665	AMON RA	1.098

The table above, sorted by minutes relative to Sheer Force shows that Chloe's good performances means that she now has to beat Sheer Force by over a minute, whereas previously, Sheer Force has had to finish in front. Our peer group is unchanged, but to finish in the money, we need to be among Farr Lap, Summersalt, Bos Global and Symbiosis. Hopefully, the improvements to Sheer Force will help us achieve this!

Race10 Results

Race10 saw windy conditions again, with maybe 20kn coming from the north east. There was no threat of a thunderstorm. After being way overpowered last week, skipper David T decided to reef the main on Sheer Force and use the No.2 Genoa. This arrangement served us well on the work up to the Lady Bay mark, and to come back, we removed the reef and put the pole out. We ran into trouble after rounding Clark Island when the mounting of the starbord side Genoa sheet pulley broke with a loud bang. This forced an unscheduled tack which led to us having to do more tacks that we would have probably preferred to avoid, slowing us down. It took us a long time to get around Bradleys Head, contributing to our modest 13th placing on corrected times.

The race saw18 starters in Division 1, and 3 dnf's. Sheer Force was the last of 7 yachts with corrected times within the 1hr09 minute, so our finishing position could have been 7th if we were a minute faster. On corrected times, Anthanta only beat us by 1 second, and Bos Global by 4 seconds.

Across the line, Sheer Force was also 13th of the 15. We trailed Panther by 18mins, and Farr Lap by 6mins. The average elapsed time for this race was 1:08:51 (slowest in the series), and Sheer Force was 5.83mins slower than that, entirely within our normal range, about a minute worse than our average. The handicapper expected Sheer Force to come 12th in this field. Cadenza apparently had difficulties, crossing the line 11th instead of her expected 3rd. Symbiosis also finished 4 places worse than expected. Yachts finishing well ahead of their handicap predictions were Chloe (4) and Farr Lap and Summersalt (both 3). The handicapper's score was 36%, achieved by reducing an outright spread of 20:01 to a corrected spread of 12:47.

The table below gives the Division 1 results for Race 10, sorted by elapsed time:-

Results Race10	Elapsed	Outright	Handicap	Diff fm	Mins	Rel to
	Time	Place	Predict	Fleet	behind	Sheer
			Place	Average	winner	Force
PANTHER	0:56:13	1	1	-12.6	0:00:00	0:18:28
OBSESSION	1:01:37	2	4	-7.2	0:05:24	0:13:04
GETAWAY SAILING.COM	1:02:16	3	2	-6.6	0:06:03	0:12:25
TOCCATA	1:05:23	4	5	-3.5	0:09:10	0:09:18
SPEARHEAD	1:07:24	5	6	-1.5	0:11:11	0:07:17
FARR LAP	1:08:42	6	9	-0.2	0:12:29	0:05:59
SUMMERSALT	1:08:46	7	10	-0.1	0:12:33	0:05:55
DJ2 BOS GLOBAL	1:10:30	8	7	1.6	0:14:17	0:04:11
CHLOE III	1:10:46	9	13	1.9	0:14:33	0:03:55
PANACEA	1:11:12	10	11	2.3	0:14:59	0:03:29
CADENZA	1:11:28	11	3	2.6	0:15:15	0:03:13
SYMBIOSIS	1:11:53	12	8	3.0	0:15:40	0:02:48
SHEER FORCE	1:14:41	13	12	5.8	0:18:28	0:00:00
ANTHANTA VI	1:15:43	14	14	6.9	0:19:30	0:01:02
AMON RA	1:16:14	15	15	7.4	0:20:01	0:01:33
	Corrected	Corrected
	Time	Position
PANTHER	1:09:06	7
OBSESSION	1:07:35	2
GETAWAY SAILING.COM	1:08:38	6
TOCCATA	1:09:35	9
SPEARHEAD	1:08:25	5
FARR LAP	1:07:42	3
SUMMERSALT	1:07:45	4
DJ2 BOS GLOBAL	1:09:55	11
CHLOE III	1:05:50	1
PANACEA	1:09:18	8
CADENZA	1:18:37	15
SYMBIOSIS	1:11:10	14
SHEER FORCE	1:09:59	13
ANTHANTA VI	1:09:58	12
AMON RA	1:09:41	10

When they get updated, Race 10 will see some major moves on the pointscore. Chloe's excellent and improving performance will now get her into first place on 25 points, pushing Sundowner off that perch. Farr Lap climbs from 11th to 6th place, but Uplift falls from 2nd to 12th place. Sheer Force will climb two rungs on the ladder from 9th to 7th place, on 35 points, well within striking distance of the top with 5 races to go.

Points after Race10	Points	Place	Lowest Drop
CHLOE III	25	1	11
SUNDOWNER V	28	2	24
PANTHER	28	2	9
SYMBIOSIS	29	4	7
SPEARHEAD	29	4	8
FARR LAP	30	6	24
SHEER FORCE	35	7	13
CADENZA	36	8	11
SUMMERSALT	36	8	10
ANTHANTA VI	38	10	15
SCARLETT O'HARA	41	11	24
UPLIFT	43	12	24
TOCCATA	46	13	15
GETAWAY SAILING.COM	51	14	24
AMON RA	57	15	15
LOVE BYTE	66	16	24
DJ2 BOS GLOBAL	68	17	17
OBSESSION	68	17	24
X3	90	19	24
CHANCELLOR	108	20	24
PANACEA	115	21	24
DISTRACTION	130	22	24
AKELA	132	23	24

Chloe's great season is highlighted in the graph which shows Difference from Fleet Average. Chloe's performance shows a steady and clear improvement from race to race.

After the race, the two Davids effected excellent repairs to the broken pulley mounting.