Race11 Handicaps

Coming thirteenth in Race 10 helped Sheer Force's time correction factor (TCF) take another step downwards (see graph), along with Anthanta IV(12th in Race 10), Toccata(9th), Amon Ra(10th), Getaway Sailing(6th), Panther(7th), Bos Global(11th) and Panacea(8th). On the other side, Chloe III(1st), Farr Lap(3rd), Summersalt(4th) were penalised with slightly tougher TCFs. Two "new" yachts have appeared in this week's handicaps, Talon, and Sailors with Disabilities (previously Kaz?). Sailors with Disabilities takes over from Panther as the scratch yacht in Division 1, by about 2.5 minutes.

**7878	SAILORS WITH DISABILITIES	-20.280
*8001	PANTHER	-17.754
*6095	UPLIFT	-14.340
*6900	X3	-12.606
2999	OBSESSION	-10.734
*6175	LOVE BYTE	-10.518
6155	GETAWAY SAILING.COM	-10.368
*8301	CADENZA	-10.356
*5382	TOCCATA	-7.650
4970	AKELA	-5.880
**6999	TALON	-5.574
*2020	SPEARHEAD	-5.514
*7404	CHANCELLOR	-4.662
*KA400	SCARLETT O'HARA	-4.506
*4208	FARR LAP	-3.978
*6279	SUMMERSALT	-3.780
*8004	DJ2 BOS GLOBAL	-3.690
*6472	SYMBIOSIS	-3.522
*80808	PANACEA	-2.166
*MH163	CHLOE III	-1.170
*6182	SUNDOWNER V	-0.714
4037	SHEER FORCE	0.000
*MH304	DISTRACTION	0.264
*316	ANTHANTA VI	0.360
*5665	AMON RA	1.098

The table above, sorted by minutes relative to Sheer Force shows that Chloe's good performances means that she now has to beat Sheer Force by over a minute, whereas previously, Sheer Force has had to finish in front. Our peer group is unchanged, but to finish in the money, we need to be among Farr Lap, Summersalt, Bos Global and Symbiosis. Hopefully, the improvements to Sheer Force will help us achieve this!

Race10 Results

Race10 saw windy conditions again, with maybe 20kn coming from the north east. There was no threat of a thunderstorm. After being way overpowered last week, skipper David T decided to reef the main on Sheer Force and use the No.2 Genoa. This arrangement served us well on the work up to the Lady Bay mark, and to come back, we removed the reef and put the pole out. We ran into trouble after rounding Clark Island when the mounting of the starbord side Genoa sheet pulley broke with a loud bang. This forced an unscheduled tack which led to us having to do more tacks that we would have probably preferred to avoid, slowing us down. It took us a long time to get around Bradleys Head, contributing to our modest 13th placing on corrected times.

The race saw18 starters in Division 1, and 3 dnf's. Sheer Force was the last of 7 yachts with corrected times within the 1hr09 minute, so our finishing position could have been 7th if we were a minute faster. On corrected times, Anthanta only beat us by 1 second, and Bos Global by 4 seconds.

Across the line, Sheer Force was also 13th of the 15. We trailed Panther by 18mins, and Farr Lap by 6mins. The average elapsed time for this race was 1:08:51 (slowest in the series), and Sheer Force was 5.83mins slower than that, entirely within our normal range, about a minute worse than our average. The handicapper expected Sheer Force to come 12th in this field. Cadenza apparently had difficulties, crossing the line 11th instead of her expected 3rd. Symbiosis also finished 4 places worse than expected. Yachts finishing well ahead of their handicap predictions were Chloe (4) and Farr Lap and Summersalt (both 3). The handicapper's score was 36%, achieved by reducing an outright spread of 20:01 to a corrected spread of 12:47.

The table below gives the Division 1 results for Race 10, sorted by elapsed time:-

Results Race10	Elapsed	Outright	Handicap	Diff fm	Mins	Rel to
	Time	Place	Predict	Fleet	behind	Sheer
			Place	Average	winner	Force
PANTHER	0:56:13	1	1	-12.6	0:00:00	0:18:28
OBSESSION	1:01:37	2	4	-7.2	0:05:24	0:13:04
GETAWAY SAILING.COM	1:02:16	3	2	-6.6	0:06:03	0:12:25
TOCCATA	1:05:23	4	5	-3.5	0:09:10	0:09:18
SPEARHEAD	1:07:24	5	6	-1.5	0:11:11	0:07:17
FARR LAP	1:08:42	6	9	-0.2	0:12:29	0:05:59
SUMMERSALT	1:08:46	7	10	-0.1	0:12:33	0:05:55
DJ2 BOS GLOBAL	1:10:30	8	7	1.6	0:14:17	0:04:11
CHLOE III	1:10:46	9	13	1.9	0:14:33	0:03:55
PANACEA	1:11:12	10	11	2.3	0:14:59	0:03:29
CADENZA	1:11:28	11	3	2.6	0:15:15	0:03:13
SYMBIOSIS	1:11:53	12	8	3.0	0:15:40	0:02:48
SHEER FORCE	1:14:41	13	12	5.8	0:18:28	0:00:00
ANTHANTA VI	1:15:43	14	14	6.9	0:19:30	0:01:02
AMON RA	1:16:14	15	15	7.4	0:20:01	0:01:33
	Corrected	Corrected
	Time	Position
PANTHER	1:09:06	7
OBSESSION	1:07:35	2
GETAWAY SAILING.COM	1:08:38	6
TOCCATA	1:09:35	9
SPEARHEAD	1:08:25	5
FARR LAP	1:07:42	3
SUMMERSALT	1:07:45	4
DJ2 BOS GLOBAL	1:09:55	11
CHLOE III	1:05:50	1
PANACEA	1:09:18	8
CADENZA	1:18:37	15
SYMBIOSIS	1:11:10	14
SHEER FORCE	1:09:59	13
ANTHANTA VI	1:09:58	12
AMON RA	1:09:41	10

When they get updated, Race 10 will see some major moves on the pointscore. Chloe's excellent and improving performance will now get her into first place on 25 points, pushing Sundowner off that perch. Farr Lap climbs from 11th to 6th place, but Uplift falls from 2nd to 12th place. Sheer Force will climb two rungs on the ladder from 9th to 7th place, on 35 points, well within striking distance of the top with 5 races to go.

Points after Race10	Points	Place	Lowest Drop
CHLOE III	25	1	11
SUNDOWNER V	28	2	24
PANTHER	28	2	9
SYMBIOSIS	29	4	7
SPEARHEAD	29	4	8
FARR LAP	30	6	24
SHEER FORCE	35	7	13
CADENZA	36	8	11
SUMMERSALT	36	8	10
ANTHANTA VI	38	10	15
SCARLETT O'HARA	41	11	24
UPLIFT	43	12	24
TOCCATA	46	13	15
GETAWAY SAILING.COM	51	14	24
AMON RA	57	15	15
LOVE BYTE	66	16	24
DJ2 BOS GLOBAL	68	17	17
OBSESSION	68	17	24
X3	90	19	24
CHANCELLOR	108	20	24
PANACEA	115	21	24
DISTRACTION	130	22	24
AKELA	132	23	24

Chloe's great season is highlighted in the graph which shows Difference from Fleet Average. Chloe's performance shows a steady and clear improvement from race to race.

After the race, the two Davids effected excellent repairs to the broken pulley mounting.

Race10 Handicaps

As usual, the finishers in last week's race have had some minor adjustments to their time correction factors. The factors for X3 (14), Amon Ra (12), Panther (11) and Summersalt (8) have eased, and those for Bos Global (1), Farr Lap (3), Obsession (5), Chloe (2), Sheer Force (6), Symbiosis (7) and Spearhead (4)have tightened. The numbers in brackets how each yacht's placing on corrected time in Race09.

The graph shows how Sheer Force's time correction factor has drifted down through the series, easing our handicap slightly. The TCF's are shown on the right axis, and the bars on the graph show our corrected time placing (left axis) for each race.

The changes are very minor, and leave Panther as the scratch yacht, giving Sheer Force a start of 17.5 minutes. Our peer group is also unchanged: Sundowner has to beat us by 8 secs, and we have to beat Chloe, Anthanta, Distraction and Amon Ra by up to 1.4 mins. To be among the prizes, we need to be sailing amongst Farr Lap, Bos Global and Scarlett O'Hara.

The handicapper expects Sheer Force to finish 19th out of 23 in a complete field. The table below showns the start in minutes each yacht gives Sheer Force. We give a start to those below us in the table. As usual, these starts are calculated on the roughly correct assumption that the race duration is 60mins.

*8001	PANTHER	-17.538
*6095	UPLIFT	-13.764
*6900	X3	-12.030
*6175	LOVE BYTE	-9.942
6155	GETAWAY SAILING.COM	-9.918
*8301	CADENZA	-9.780
2999	OBSESSION	-9.588
*5382	TOCCATA	-7.638
4970	AKELA	-5.304
*2020	SPEARHEAD	-4.680
*7404	CHANCELLOR	-4.086
*KA400	SCARLETT O'HARA	-3.930
*8004	DJ2 BOS GLOBAL	-3.282
*6472	SYMBIOSIS	-3.186
*4208	FARR LAP	-2.904
*6279	SUMMERSALT	-2.898
*80808	PANACEA	-2.172
*6182	SUNDOWNER V	-0.138
4037	SHEER FORCE	0.000
*MH163	CHLOE III	0.408
*316	ANTHANTA VI	0.780
*MH304	DISTRACTION	0.840
*5665	AMON RA	1.374

See you on Friday. Let's hope the winds are a little milder than they were for Race09!

Race09 Results

We were greeted with a very strong north easterly before the start of Race09. The white caps on the harbour were large, and David T estimated the wind at 35kn. It looked too dangerous to sail, but the wind eased a little to maybe 25kn by start time, and we sailed the course carefully, still overpowered, with the No2 Genoa and full Main. At the club later, Janet congratulated those yachts which had voluntarily withdrawn in the difficult conditions - we noticed Anthanta IV motoring off before the race, and no doubt there were others.

That said, once we got going, Sheer Force handled the conditions very well, the crew adapted to their new roles, and we felt quite comfortable going up the harbour. We came 6th on handicap after being about a minute behind at the start due to the extreme conditions. But for that minute, we might have finished 3rd on corrected times. As it was, only 7 seconds of corrected time spanned Spearhead, Obsession, Sheer Force and Symbiosis, so it was very tight in the 4th - 7th positions.

The race itself had 15 finishers in Division 1, and the average elapsed time was a typical 1:05:02. Sheer Force recorded a time across the line some 3.68 minutes slower than the fleet average. This is a minute better than our own average. This good result is partly affected by Cadenza's exceptionally slow race (she had very little sail up) which would have slowed the fleet average. Cadenza was 9.3 mins slower than the fleet average (as she was in Race01), whereas she is usually 5-10 minutes faster than the fleet average. There were a couple of new yachts in this Division 1 field, Estate Master and Attitude.

Sheer Force was 11th across the line in Division 1, almost 15 minutes behind Panther. Nearest to us were Chloe (2 mins ahead), and Sundowner (3 mins behind). The handicapper's predictions for the finish order was upset by the windy conditions. Cadenza was last to finish, 11 places behind predicted, and DJ2 Bos Global, Farr Lapp and Chloe finished 3-4 places ahead of prediction. My other 'measure' of handicapper performance is the extent to which the spread of elapsed times is reduced by the time corrections. Unfortunately, the elapsed time spread of 20:31, thanks to Cadenza, became a spread of 21:44 after correction, giving the handicapper a negative 3.5% score, the worst since Race04 of last year's twilights.

The table below is, as usual, the Division 1 finishers in elapsed time order.

Results Race09	Elapsed	Outright	Handicap	Diff fm	Mins	Rel to
	Time	Place	Predict	Fleet	behind	Sheer
			Place	Average	winner	Force
PANTHER	0:53:49	1	1	-11.2	0:00:00	0:14:54
ESTATE MASTER	0:57:30	2	3	-7.5	0:03:41	0:11:13
OBSESSION	0:58:41	3	5	-6.4	0:04:52	0:10:02
X3	0:59:53	4	2	-5.2	0:06:04	0:08:50
DJ2 BOS GLOBAL	1:01:42	5	9	-3.3	0:07:53	0:07:01
SPEARHEAD	1:03:08	6	6	-1.9	0:09:19	0:05:35
FARR LAP	1:04:29	7	10	-0.6	0:10:40	0:04:14
SYMBIOSIS	1:04:51	8	7	-0.2	0:11:02	0:03:52
SUMMERSALT	1:05:54	9	8	0.9	0:12:05	0:02:49
CHLOE III	1:06:38	10	13	1.6	0:12:49	0:02:05
SHEER FORCE	1:08:43	11	12	3.7	0:14:54	0:00:00
SUNDOWNER V	1:11:35	12	11	6.5	0:17:46	0:02:52
ATTITUDE	1:11:43	13	14	6.7	0:17:54	0:03:00
AMON RA	1:12:40	14	15	7.6	0:18:51	0:03:57
CADENZA	1:14:20	15	4	9.3	0:20:31	0:05:37
	Corrected	Corrected
	Time	Position
PANTHER	1:06:15	11
ESTATE MASTER	1:05:23	9
OBSESSION	1:04:02	5
X3	1:08:34	14
DJ2 BOS GLOBAL	1:00:32	1
SPEARHEAD	1:04:01	4
FARR LAP	1:03:10	3
SYMBIOSIS	1:04:08	7
SUMMERSALT	1:04:58	8
CHLOE III	1:01:40	2
SHEER FORCE	1:04:07	6
SUNDOWNER V	1:07:14	13
ATTITUDE	1:05:54	10
AMON RA	1:06:42	12
CADENZA	1:21:46	15

When RANSA updates the pointscore, I expect that Sheer Force will maintain her 8th position, equal with Anthanta. Missing another race will now bump Uplift from top position to be replaced by Sundowner. At 26 points, Sheer Force is well within striking distance of the leaders (17-21 points) which don't have any or many good drops left to save them from the effects of missed races.

Points after Race09	Points	Place	Lowest Drop
SUNDOWNER V	17	1	11
UPLIFT	19	2	24
PANTHER	21	3	9
SYMBIOSIS	22	4	7
SPEARHEAD	24	5	8
CHLOE III	24	5	11
CADENZA	25	7	11
ANTHANTA VI	26	8	15
SHEER FORCE	26	8	9
SCARLETT O'HARA	27	10	14
FARR LAP	27	10	24
SUMMERSALT	32	12	10
TOCCATA	37	13	15
GETAWAY SAILING.COM	45	14	24
AMON RA	47	15	15
LOVE BYTE	50	16	24
DJ2 BOS GLOBAL	57	17	17
OBSESSION	66	18	24
X3	74	19	24
CHANCELLOR	84	20	24
DISTRACTION	106	21	24
PANACEA	107	22	24
AKELA	108	23	24

Race09 Handicaps

With only a small field last week, RANSA's updating of the handicaps for Race 09 has been quite modest for Division 1. Seven yachts (incl. Sheer Force) had their time correction factors eased a tad, and two yachts were toughened a bit. Panther remains the scratch yacht, and is expected to cross the line almost 18 minutes in front of Sheer Force.

As usual, my calculations assume a race duration of 60 mins - a reasonably close assumption, since the average for all finishers this series after 8 races is actually 63 mins. On this basis, our peer group of competitors expected to be within 2 minutes of Sheer Force at the finish line consists of 5 yachts (see table), all but one of which we need to beat by a minute to be ahead on corrected times. The table below shows the Division 1 yachts in seeding order, from the fastest to the slowest, with the calculated correction shown relative to Sheer Force.

*8001	PANTHER	-17.874
*6095	UPLIFT	-14.004
*6900	X3	-12.714
*6175	LOVE BYTE	-10.182
6155	GETAWAY SAILING.COM	-10.158
*8301	CADENZA	-10.020
2999	OBSESSION	-9.492
*5382	TOCCATA	-7.878
4970	AKELA	-5.544
*2020	SPEARHEAD	-4.866
*7404	CHANCELLOR	-4.326
*KA400	SCARLETT O'HARA	-4.170
*6472	SYMBIOSIS	-3.354
*6279	SUMMERSALT	-3.168
*8004	DJ2 BOS GLOBAL	-2.886
*4208	FARR LAP	-2.796
*80808	PANACEA	-2.412
*6182	SUNDOWNER V	-0.378
4037	SHEER FORCE	0.000
*MH163	CHLOE III	0.450
*316	ANTHANTA VI	0.540
*MH304	DISTRACTION	0.600
*5665	AMON RA	0.912

As illustrated last week, to feature in the prize presentations, we need to be half way up the field when we cross the line. Sheer Force's elapsed time averages 4.7 mins slower than the fleet average. We win prizes when we are 1-2 minutes slower than the fleet average, which gives us our target for Race 09.

Race08 Results

Race 08 had the smallest field in the series so far, with only nine starters, but the moderate north-easterly conditions obviously suited Sheer Force with us finishing 2nd on handicap and 5th outright. On corrected times, we were 35 seconds behind the winner Chloe III (which, coincidentally, crossed the line exactly 35 seconds behind us on the water). In the end, the committee boat could not separate Sheer Force from Out of Sight - we both registered the same elapsed time of 1:06:59. Out of Sight is not in the Full Series pointscore (she may be in the Lite Series) and has not been in the RANSA handicap lists to date.

It's not surprising we weren't too sure where other yachts were. Apart from Chloe and Out of Sight, which were close to us, the 4 yachts which beat us were from almost 3 minutes to 13 minutes ahead, and the 2 behind us were 4 minutes back.

The table below shows the 9 yachts in the order we crossed the line:-

Results Race08	Elapsed	Outright	Handicap	Diff fm	Mins	Rel to
	Time	Place	Predict	Fleet	behind	Sheer
			Place	Average	winner	Force
PANTHER	0:54:13	1	1	-11.1	0:00:00	0:12:46
SCARLETT O'HARA	1:02:34	2	3	-2.7	0:08:21	0:04:25
TOCCATA	1:02:37	3	2	-2.7	0:08:24	0:04:22
SYMBIOSIS	1:04:16	4	4	-1.0	0:10:03	0:02:43
SHEER FORCE	1:06:59	5	6	1.7	0:12:46	0:00:00
OUT OF SIGHT	1:06:59	5	5	1.7	0:12:46	0:00:00
CHLOE III	1:07:34	7	9	2.3	0:13:21	0:00:35
AMON RA	1:11:01	8	8	5.7	0:16:48	0:04:02
ANTHANTA VI	1:11:32	9	7	6.2	0:17:19	0:04:33
	Corrected	Corrected
	Time	Position
PANTHER	1:06:46	8
SCARLETT O'HARA	1:02:50	3
TOCCATA	1:07:26	9
SYMBIOSIS	1:03:11	4
SHEER FORCE	1:02:33	2
OUT OF SIGHT	1:05:39	6
CHLOE III	1:02:08	1
AMON RA	1:05:33	5
ANTHANTA VI	1:06:33	7

This table shows that Sheer Force's elaspsed time was only 1.7mins slower than the fleet average, our second best race in the series on this statistic. This is the performance necessary for us to win a prize in this Division 1 field.

With the smallish fleet, the handicapper got the finishing sequence pretty right. The biggest "surprises" were that Chloe crossed the line 7th (expected to be 9th) and Anthanta was 9th (expected to be 7th). By reducing an elapsed spread of 17:19 to a corrected spread of 5:17, the handicapping system got its best score so far, 69%.

Barring any late corrections, the Full Series pointscore table after Race 08 will look like:-

Points after Race08	Points	Place	Lowest Drop
UPLIFT	8	1	11
SUNDOWNER V	11	2	6
ANTHANTA VI	13	3	13
PANTHER	14	4	7
CADENZA	15	5	10
SYMBIOSIS	16	6	6
SCARLETT O'HARA	18	7	9
SPEARHEAD	20	8	8
SHEER FORCE	20	8	9
CHLOE III	22	10	11
FARR LAP	24	11	24
TOCCATA	24	11	13
SUMMERSALT	24	11	10
LOVE BYTE	26	14	24
GETAWAY SAILING.COM	33	15	12
AMON RA	37	16	15
DJ2 BOS GLOBAL	56	17	17
CHANCELLOR	60	18	24
OBSESSION	61	19	24
X3	62	20	24
DISTRACTION	82	21	24
PANACEA	83	22	24
AKELA	84	23	24

Our good result last night will promote Sheer Force to equal 8th with Spearhead. Prior to Race 08, we were in 13th place. We will be on 20 pts, with the series leaders on 8 to 13 pts. Of course, this second place gives us a good start in the post-New Year 8 race Twilight Lite series (best 6 races count).

Race08 Handicaps

The usual fine tuning of handicaps has taken place for Race08, and the table below gives the handicaps relative to Sheer Force, calculated in minutes from the time correction factors, assuming the race duration of 60 minutes.

*8001	PANTHER	-17.868
*6095	UPLIFT	-13.956
*6900	X3	-12.666
*6175	LOVE BYTE	-10.134
6155	GETAWAY SAILING.COM	-10.110
*8301	CADENZA	-9.972
2999	OBSESSION	-9.444
*5382	TOCCATA	-8.586
4970	AKELA	-5.496
*2020	SPEARHEAD	-4.818
*7404	CHANCELLOR	-4.278
*KA400	SCARLETT O'HARA	-4.224
*6279	SUMMERSALT	-3.120
*6472	SYMBIOSIS	-2.958
*8004	DJ2 BOS GLOBAL	-2.838
*4208	FARR LAP	-2.748
*80808	PANACEA	-2.364
*6182	SUNDOWNER V	-0.330
4037	SHEER FORCE	0.000
*316	ANTHANTA VI	0.210
*MH304	DISTRACTION	0.648
*5665	AMON RA	0.648
*MH163	CHLOE III	0.846

Our peer group (yachts expected to finish within 2 minutes of Sheer Force) consists of 4 yachts we have to be ahead of (Anthanta, Distraction, Amon Ra and Chloe) and one (Sundowner) we can be very close behind and still beat on handicap.

In races to date, Sheer Force has needed to be 2 to 7 minutes faster to have won on handicap. This means we have to be amongst Scarlett O'Hara and near Akela to be a chance for gold.