Race 07

Sheer Force's performance in Race07 was not as good as we would have hoped. We were beaten across the line by yachts that we should have been ahead of, viz: Chloe III & Anthanta IV. While we did lose time at the Lady Bay mark, it's also true that we could not get past Anthanta on the outbound leg, which must reflect on our tactics or trim. What can we learn from this?

In outright placings, we were 10th out of 11 finishers, beating only Amon Ra (by almost 5 minutes). We crossed the line 11:51 behind gun-getter Cadenza, with Chloe 10 seconds ahead of us, and Anthanta 2:39 ahead. We were 4.5 mins slower than the fleet average, which is actually better than we usually are (our average is 5.3 mins), but this statistic is misleading this week, because the big yachts Uplift, X3 and Panther were all missing in action (or rather, missing from action), meaning the fleet was slower anyway.
On corrected time, we were 8th out of 11, and needed to be 4:33 faster to get the gold medal, or 2:58 faster to get the bronze.
In this abbreviated fleet, the handicapper didn't do too well in predicting the finishing sequence. Two yachts crossed the line 3 places away from prediction. Anthanta was 8th, expected 11th, and Sheer Force was 10th, expected 7th. Chancellor was 6th, expected 4th, and all others were within 1 place of their prediction. The handicapper usually gets Sheer Force pretty right, so we disappointed him/her/it last evening! The handicapper score was 52%, achieved by reducing an elapsed time spread of 16:36 to a corrected time spread of 7:59. This is better than the average score (40%).

The table below is in cross the line order.

Yacht	Elapsed	Outright	Handicap	Diff fm	Mins	Rel to
	Time	Place	Predict	Fleet	behind	Sheer
				Average	winner	Force
CADENZA	0:55:46	1	2	-7.3	0:00:00	0:11:51
GETAWAY SAILING.COM	0:57:08	2	1	-5.9	0:01:22	0:10:29
SPEARHEAD	0:59:54	3	5	-3.2	0:04:08	0:07:43
TOCCATA	0:59:55	4	3	-3.2	0:04:09	0:07:42
SYMBIOSIS	1:02:07	5	6	-1.0	0:06:21	0:05:30
CHANCELLOR	1:03:03	6	4	0.0	0:07:17	0:04:34
SUNDOWNER V	1:03:32	7	8	0.5	0:07:46	0:04:05
ANTHANTA VI	1:04:58	8	11	1.9	0:09:12	0:02:39
CHLOE III	1:07:27	9	9	4.4	0:11:41	0:00:10
SHEER FORCE	1:07:37	10	7	4.5	0:11:51	0:00:00
AMON RA	1:12:22	11	10	9.3	0:16:36	0:04:45
	Corrected	Corrected
	Time	Position
CADENZA	1:01:10	5
GETAWAY SAILING.COM	1:02:59	7
SPEARHEAD	1:00:49	3
TOCCATA	1:05:08	10
SYMBIOSIS	1:01:08	4
CHANCELLOR	1:04:04	9
SUNDOWNER V	0:59:14	1
ANTHANTA VI	1:00:12	2
CHLOE III	1:02:40	6
SHEER FORCE	1:03:47	8
AMON RA	1:07:13	11

After yesterday's result there are now 7 races & 4 drops in the pointscore, so still only 3 races are counted. Sheer Force will remain at 13th, on 18 points (3+7+8). Uplift & Sundowner will be on top with 5 points each (1+2+2 and 1+1+3). Both these two yachts have missed 2 races like Sheer Force, and they will not retain their positions if they continue to skip races.) Spearhead (6th, 12points=3+4+5) & Cadenza (4th, 9pts=1+3+5) are the only yachts to have raced every race.

Pointscore	Race07
Yacht	Points	Place	Lowest Drop
UPLIFT	5	1	3
SUNDOWNER V	5	1	6
ANTHANTA VI	7	3	13
CADENZA	9	4	6
PANTHER	9	4	5
SYMBIOSIS	12	6	6
SPEARHEAD	12	6	8
FARR LAP	13	8	11
SCARLETT O'HARA	15	9	9
TOCCATA	16	10	13
SUMMERSALT	16	10	8
LOVE BYTE	17	12	9
SHEER FORCE	18	13	9
CHLOE III	21	14	11
GETAWAY SAILING.COM	23	15	10
AMON RA	32	16	15
CHANCELLOR	36	17	24
OBSESSION	37	18	24
X3	38	19	24
DJ2 BOS GLOBAL	39	20	17
DISTRACTION	58	21	24
PANACEA	59	22	24
AKELA	60	23	24

Best wishes for Christmas & the New Year. If we don't see you beforehand, see you on 5 January!

Race 06

From aboard Sheer Force, we don't really know (1) which boats broke the start, and (2) which boats turned back & restarted, but it's extraordinary that the RANSA committee boat could not identify at least one boat which did (1) but not (2), giving them an "ocs" (on course start). You have to wonder how hard they tried! It's not as if it's the committee's fault! That said, we were quite close to the start boat and would have certainly obstructed their view to some extent. Which makes me think that, as a matter of tactics, we should not seek to start close to the start boat. This supplements David T's comment that starting away from the crowd can give you better air and certainly less stress.

When you think about it, if it's close, it's really impossible for almost any yacht to be sure whether they've broken the start unless they're called by the start boat. So how could you expect any skipper to admit they've broken the start on an honour system. The more pragmatic tactic would surely be to hide in the crowd, well away from the start boat and follow Nick's advice - "never turn back".

(By the way, Sheer Force jumped the gun on 5 November 2004, and was graded "ocs". In the point score, that's the same as "dns", not a disqualification which cannot be dropped.)

Race06 had 20 finishers in Division 1, the biggest field so far this series. The average elapsed time was 1:03:23. Cadenza won on handicap with a corrected time 6:31 ahead of Sheer Force, with 2nd & 3rd some 6:14 & 4:59 ahead of us. David T's estimate of how much time we lost in turning back was 4-5 minutes, so we might have been close to 3rd if we hadn't broken the start, if we didn't turn back, if we didn't get busted etc. Symbiosis (3rd on handicap) definitely did turn back after the start, but I don't know about Cadenza & Uplift. (From my dim recollections, I suspect Uplift did break the start & did not turn back.) 4 minutes quicker & we would have come 6th, 5 minutes quicker & we would have come 3rd, if noone else's times are altered.

In outright placings, Panther got the gun. Now I definitely saw Panther turn back behind us after the start, but can't be sure that she restarted properly, but you would assume she did. Panther was followed by Uplift (1:08 behind) and Cadenza (4:05 behind). Sheer Force was 16th/20 across the line 19:27mins behind Panther, and was 5.7 mins slower than the fleet average, a more or less "typical" result for us.

The handicapper's worst prediction this week was Symbiosis which finished 7th outright but was expected to finish 14th. Due to the mysteries of time correction factors, this wasn't enough to beat Cadenza on handicap. Cadenza, at 3rd across the line, also finished 4 places ahead of her expected 7th. The unexpected bad performers yesterday were Akela (should be 8th, finished 14th), and Bos Global (should be 11th, came in 15th). In this field, the handicapper expected Sheer Force to finish 17th, and we came in 16th having unexpectedly beaten Distraction (by 1:42 instead of finishing 0:38 behind her). My score for the handicapper this week was 43%, earned by reducing an outright spread of 21:39 to a corrected spread of 12:17. The range of handicapper scores so far is 32-50%. (Last summer it was minus 32% to plus 62%.)

Looking across the 6 races so far, Panther has got the gun 4 times, and no one yacht has won on handicap more than once yet.

The table below lists the Race06 finishers in their outright placings.

Results Race06	Elapsed	Outright	Handicap	Diff fm	Mins	Rel to
	Time	Place	Predict	Fleet	behind	Sheer
			Place	Average	winner	Force
PANTHER	0:50:27	1	1	-13.8	0:00:00	0:19:27
UPLIFT	0:51:35	2	2	-12.7	0:01:08	0:18:19
CADENZA	0:54:32	3	7	-9.7	0:04:05	0:15:22
LOVE BYTE	0:55:44	4	4	-8.5	0:05:17	0:14:10
ESTATE MASTER	0:57:58	5	6	-6.3	0:07:31	0:11:56
GETAWAY SAILING.COM	1:00:01	6	3	-4.2	0:09:34	0:09:53
SYMBIOSIS	1:02:29	7	14	-1.8	0:12:02	0:07:25
TOCCATA	1:02:45	8	5	-1.5	0:12:18	0:07:09
SCARLETT O'HARA	1:05:34	9	10	1.3	0:15:07	0:04:20
SPEARHEAD	1:06:00	10	9	1.8	0:15:33	0:03:54
OUT OF SIGHT	1:06:32	11	15	2.3	0:16:05	0:03:22
FARR LAP	1:08:25	12	13	4.2	0:17:58	0:01:29
PANACEA	1:08:25	13	12	4.2	0:17:58	0:01:29
AKELA	1:09:39	14	8	5.4	0:19:12	0:00:15
DJ2 BOS GLOBAL	1:09:53	15	11	5.6	0:19:26	0:00:01
SHEER FORCE	1:09:54	16	17	5.7	0:19:27	0:00:00
SUNDOWNER V	1:10:20	17	18	6.1	0:19:53	0:00:26
CHLOE III	1:10:59	18	20	6.7	0:20:32	0:01:05
DISTRACTION	1:11:36	19	16	7.4	0:21:09	0:01:42
AMON RA	1:12:06	20	19	7.9	0:21:39	0:02:12
	Corrected	Corrected
	Time	Position
PANTHER	1:01:18	5
UPLIFT	0:59:25	2
CADENZA	0:59:08	1
LOVE BYTE	1:00:56	4
ESTATE MASTER	1:03:11	6
GETAWAY SAILING.COM	1:06:26	12
SYMBIOSIS	1:00:40	3
TOCCATA	1:08:27	18
SCARLETT O'HARA	1:06:22	11
SPEARHEAD	1:07:18	15
OUT OF SIGHT	1:03:56	7
FARR LAP	1:06:48	13
PANACEA	1:07:44	16
AKELA	1:11:25	20
DJ2 BOS GLOBAL	1:09:22	19
SHEER FORCE	1:05:39	9
SUNDOWNER V	1:05:31	8
CHLOE III	1:05:54	10
DISTRACTION	1:08:01	17
AMON RA	1:06:58	14

 

Race 05

Race05 was certainly the most exciting so far with very strong winds and lots of problems on the water. Division 1 had 21 starters and 19 finishers (the biggest so far & equal to the biggest last year), and the average elapsed time was 1:03:23, close enough to the 60mins I assume for handicap calculations. Sheer Force finished 16th on corrected times, 16th outright and was ranked 17th by the handicapper. Our outright placing is AFTER redress was granted to Anthanta IV and Scarlett O'Hara for their role in rescuing "survivors" from the ferry collision. We know that Anthanta & Scarlett actually finished after we did, but in the results, both these yachts had lesser elapsed times than Sheer Force, so the effect of the redress is to apply a correction to their elapsed times. So all of the following analysis is "compromised" by the redress correction.

On corrected times, Sheer Force was 7:27 behind the winner, showing how much quicker we would have had to have been to get into the money. We had a good start despite the scare with the boom vang, but lost time throughout the race due to our sail selection, when we had to take several evasive actions which effectively stalled us, and when we couldn't use the pole on the way home (my opinion, anyway). Our elapsed time was 7:47 slower than the fleet average, which, although better than we recorded in Race03, compares poorly with last year, when we averaged 3:18 slower than the fleet average.

The three yachts which trailed Sheer Force to the line (Akela, Bos Global & Distraction) all should have beaten us according to the handicapper (so they had worse races!), and the two yachts that we should have beaten (Chloe III & Anthanta IV) beat us (subject to the redress).

Even though the handicapper predicted our outright position pretty well, there are some big discrepancies with other yachts. Akela (as mentioned) had a bad race (a torn headsail?) and was 17th across the line although expected by the handicapper to be 9th. Bos Global was 18th, but was expected to be 12th. Distraction was 19th, expected to be 15th. On the other side of the ledger, Farr Lap was 10th outright although expected to be 16th. Anthanta (assuming her redress was not unduly generous!) had an outright placing of 13th after being expected to arrive last or 19th. This very unexpected performance from Anthanta earned her the gold medal on handicap. Both Cadenza & Chloe III finished 3 places ahead of the handicapper's predictions. The redress granted to Scarlett O'Hara positioned her exactly in the 11th place expected.

As you'd expect from the above, the handicapper's score was poor, only 32%. The outright spread was 32:37, and the corrections only reduced that to 22:11.

The table below shows the finishers sorted by elapsed time.

Results Race05	Elapsed	Outright	Handicap	Diff fm	Mins	Rel to
	Time	Place	Predict	Fleet	behind	Sheer
			Place	Average	winner	Force
PANTHER	0:50:51	1	1	-12.5	0:00:00	0:20:00
X3	0:53:34	2	3	-9.8	0:02:43	0:17:17
UPLIFT	0:55:48	3	2	-7.6	0:04:57	0:15:03
GETAWAY SAILING.COM	0:56:06	4	4	-7.3	0:05:15	0:14:45
CADENZA	0:56:29	5	8	-6.9	0:05:38	0:14:22
LOVE BYTE	0:57:56	6	5	-5.4	0:07:05	0:12:55
OBSESSION	0:59:07	7	7	-4.3	0:08:16	0:11:44
TOCCATA	0:59:21	8	6	-4.0	0:08:30	0:11:30
SPEARHEAD	1:01:51	9	10	-1.5	0:11:00	0:09:00
FARR LAP	1:03:40	10	16	0.3	0:12:49	0:07:11
SCARLETT O'HARA	1:04:28	11	11	1.1	0:13:37	0:06:23
SUMMERSALT	1:04:49	12	13	1.4	0:13:58	0:06:02
ANTHANTA VI	1:05:11	13	19	1.8	0:14:20	0:05:40
SYMBIOSIS	1:07:50	14	14	4.5	0:16:59	0:03:01
CHLOE III	1:08:11	15	18	4.8	0:17:20	0:02:40
SHEER FORCE	1:10:51	16	17	7.5	0:20:00	0:00:00
AKELA	1:11:29	17	9	8.1	0:20:38	0:00:38
DJ2 BOS GLOBAL	1:13:15	18	12	9.9	0:22:24	0:02:24
DISTRACTION	1:23:28	19	15	20.1	0:32:37	0:12:37
	Corrected	Corrected
	Time	Position
PANTHER	1:01:17	4
X3	1:00:18	2
UPLIFT	1:04:16	11
GETAWAY SAILING.COM	1:02:03	6
CADENZA	1:00:45	3
LOVE BYTE	1:03:44	9
OBSESSION	1:04:26	12
TOCCATA	1:04:56	13
SPEARHEAD	1:03:03	8
FARR LAP	1:01:51	5
SCARLETT O'HARA	1:05:16	14
SUMMERSALT	1:04:10	10
ANTHANTA VI	0:59:37	1
SYMBIOSIS	1:06:30	15
CHLOE III	1:03:01	7
SHEER FORCE	1:07:04	16
AKELA	1:13:18	18
DJ2 BOS GLOBAL	1:12:43	17
DISTRACTION	1:21:48	19

I don't know which yacht was involved in the ferry collision. You can try to identify possibilities from the dnf list, I suppose, but I don't know if it was in our race or even racing at all. By the way, the "Ferry Activated Exclusion Zone" is clearly defined in the Sailing Instructions.

Race 04

Seventeen finishers in Race04 made it the biggest of the series so far, and the average elapsed time of 1:06:51 is pretty close to the 1:00:00 I assume when making the handicap estimates. Sheer Force's 3rd place on handicap could have been 2nd place if we were 14 seconds faster, and 1st if we were 29 seconds faster. But we were well clear of 4th, by 1min23.

Sheer Force achieved this good result by being only 1.1 mins slower than the fleet average, compared to 7.8mins last week (9th corrected), and 4.8mins as predicted by the handicap. Sheer Force was placed 13 out of 17 accross the line. We were 12:41 behind the gun-getter Panther (which compares very favourably to the almost 16 minutes that the handicapper expect us to trail her).

Two yachts, Bos Global and Symbiosis finished less than a minute ahead of us (uncorrected), but the yachts behind us (Chloe III, Anthanta, Chancellor & Amon Ra) were well back (9 - 11 minutes) which is why we could hardly see them. Scarlett O'Hara only beat us by just over 2 minutes on the water. The table below shows Division 1 in finishing order.

Results Race04	Elapsed	Outright	Handicap	Diff fm	Mins	Rel to
	Time	Place	Predict	Fleet	behind	Sheer
			Place	Average	winner	Force
PANTHER	0:55:16	1	1	-11.6	0:00:00	0:12:41
X3	0:58:14	2	2	-8.6	0:02:58	0:09:43
LOVE BYTE	0:59:46	3	4	-7.1	0:04:30	0:08:11
GETAWAY SAILING.COM	1:00:24	4	3	-6.4	0:05:08	0:07:33
CADENZA	1:02:59	5	6	-3.9	0:07:43	0:04:58
SPEARHEAD	1:04:15	6	8	-2.6	0:08:59	0:03:42
SUMMERSALT	1:04:26	7	11	-2.4	0:09:10	0:03:31
FARR LAP	1:05:32	8	13	-1.3	0:10:16	0:02:25
SCARLETT O'HARA	1:05:43	9	9	-1.1	0:10:27	0:02:14
DJ2 BOS GLOBAL	1:06:46	10	10	-0.1	0:11:30	0:01:11
SYMBIOSIS	1:07:24	11	12	0.6	0:12:08	0:00:33
TOCCATA	1:07:28	12	5	0.6	0:12:12	0:00:29
SHEER FORCE	1:07:57	13	14	1.1	0:12:41	0:00:00
CHLOE III	1:16:49	14	16	10.0	0:21:33	0:08:52
ANTHANTA VI	1:16:53	15	17	10.0	0:21:37	0:08:56
CHANCELLOR	1:17:18	16	7	10.5	0:22:02	0:09:21
AMON RA	1:19:11	17	15	12.3	0:23:55	0:11:14
	Corrected	Corrected
	Time	Position
PANTHER	1:06:45	9
X3	1:09:53	12
LOVE BYTE	1:05:42	5
GETAWAY SAILING.COM	1:07:04	10
CADENZA	1:08:23	11
SPEARHEAD	1:05:27	4
SUMMERSALT	1:03:50	2
FARR LAP	1:03:35	1
SCARLETT O'HARA	1:06:15	6
DJ2 BOS GLOBAL	1:06:22	8
SYMBIOSIS	1:06:16	7
TOCCATA	1:13:49	15
SHEER FORCE	1:04:04	3
CHLOE III	1:11:00	14
ANTHANTA VI	1:10:19	13
CHANCELLOR	1:18:55	17
AMON RA	1:13:59	16

The handicapper is not doing too well. The elapsed time spread was 23:55, reduced only 36% to 15:20 by the time corrections. Erratic performances made the handicapper look poor. This is highlighted by comparing the actual finish order with the handicap predictions. The eventual handicap winner, Farr Lap, had an exceptional race by crossing the line in 8th place, when it was predicted to be 13th. The eventual 2nd place on corrected times, Summersalt, was 7th outright, but was expected to be 11th. (We were expected to be 14th, but came in 13th.) At the other extreme, Chancellor was expected to cross the line 7th, but somehow only managed 16th. These discrepancies are evident in the above table, and are rather worse than usual, although the handicapper got the top order pretty right.

Race 03

All the yachts must be getting organised - Race 3 had the biggest number of starters & finishers of the series so far. Sheer Force finished 11 minutes ahead of the "closing bell" last night, so the 3 Division 1 yachts Janet said were "just too late" must have been well behind us. These were Chloe III, Anthanta IV and DJ2 Bos Global. I have to say I never saw any of these during the race, except for Bos Global which started with us & fell behind from the outset. According to the handicapper, these yachts should finish 1.3mins behind us, 1.9mins behind us, and 2.8mins ahead of us, so something went wrong for all of them relative to Sheer Force.

Apart from the above three, of course, Sheer Force was the last Division 1 yacht across the line, but the only yacht ahead of us which should have been behind us by the handicapper's prediction was Sundowner V. Sundowner crossed the line just over a minute ahead of us, but we should have been just under a minute ahead of her.

The handicapper didn't have a good race in terms of predicting the finish order. Ft Obsession crossed the line 4 places ahead of her expected 6th, beating even Uplift. Salt Shaker & Chancellor both finished 4 places worse than expected. The corrected times for the finishers were spread out by 10:08 - this compares to the spread of elapsed times of 19:25, giving the handicapper a score of 48% which is typical but not very good.

On corrected times, we would have had to have been a minute faster to have gotten 8th place, and 8mins faster to have taken 1st prize.

The table below shows the Race03 results sorted by outright placings . . .

After Race03	Elapsed	Outright	Handicap	Diff fm	Mins	Rel to
	Time	Place	Predict	Fleet	behind	Sheer
				Average	winner	Force
PANTHER	0:52:30	1	1	0.0	0:00:00	0:19:25
FT OBSESSION	0:56:24	2	6	0.0	0:03:54	0:15:31
UPLIFT	0:56:59	3	2	0.0	0:04:29	0:14:56
OUTLAW	1:01:57	4	3	0.0	0:09:27	0:09:58
YANDOO	1:03:30	5	4	0.0	0:11:00	0:08:25
CADENZA	1:04:49	6	5	0.0	0:12:19	0:07:06
SCARLETT O'HARA	1:05:08	7	10	0.0	0:12:38	0:06:47
SPEARHEAD	1:05:52	8	9	0.0	0:13:22	0:06:03
SUMMERSALT	1:06:24	9	11	0.0	0:13:54	0:05:31
SYMBIOSIS	1:06:50	10	12	0.0	0:14:20	0:05:05
SALT SHAKER	1:07:01	11	7	0.0	0:14:31	0:04:54
CHANCELLOR	1:07:35	12	8	0.0	0:15:05	0:04:20
SUNDOWNER V	1:10:42	13	14	0.0	0:18:12	0:01:13
SHEER FORCE	1:11:55	14	13	0.0	0:19:25	0:00:00
	Corrected	Corrected
	Time	Position
PANTHER	1:02:53	2
FT OBSESSION	1:00:52	1
UPLIFT	1:05:23	3
OUTLAW	1:11:00	14
YANDOO	1:10:41	13
CADENZA	1:10:22	12
SCARLETT O'HARA	1:05:33	4
SPEARHEAD	1:07:07	8
SUMMERSALT	1:06:11	7
SYMBIOSIS	1:05:41	5
SALT SHAKER	1:09:06	10
CHANCELLOR	1:09:37	11
SUNDOWNER V	1:06:04	6
SHEER FORCE	1:08:06	9

It's not possible to compute a point score at this early stage - for one thing, there have been less races than there are drops allowed! Also, I don't know which yachts are entered into the point score. But it is possible to estimate a point score ignoring all drops and just assuming that the handicap list is the same as the block entries (this will not be correct, but I've done it anyway.) The pointscore after Race03 would look like:-

Yacht	Position	Race01	Race02	Race03	Total
UPLIFT	1	2	1	3	6
SPEARHEAD	2	9	5	8	22
SUMMERSALT	2	7	8	7	22
PANTHER	4	3	21	2	26
CADENZA	4	10	6	10	26
TOCCATA	6	4	2	21	27
SCARLETT O'HARA	7	5	21	4	30
SUNDOWNER V	7	21	3	6	30
SYMBIOSIS	9	6	21	5	32
CHLOE III	10	11	10	12	33
ANTHANTA VI	11	21	4	12	37
AMON RA	12	11	9	21	41
FT OBSESSION	13	21	21	1	43
DJ2 BOS GLOBAL	14	11	21	12	44
FARR LAPP	15	21	7	21	49
LOVE BYTE	16	8	21	21	50
SHEER FORCE	17	21	21	9	51
YANDOO	18	21	21	11	53
DISTRACTION	19	21	21	21	63
AKELA	19	21	21	21	63

Uplift are setting a cracking pace by being a placegetter in every race so far. Hopefully the handicapper will respond by doling out some rough justice - no sign of that so far.