Race16 Handicaps

Sheer Force's time correction factor (TCF) is unchanged after Race15, as indeed are the TCFs for most yachts. After their exceptionally good races last week, both Spearhead and Summersalt got penalised by the handicapper, as did Scarlett O'Hara, which also registered its best race of the series as measured by my elapsed time difference from the fleet average statistic. These penalties amount to between 30secs and a minute.

The table below is as usual, sorted by handicap, which is shown in calculated minutes relative to Sheer Force.

**7878	SAILORS WITH DISABILITIES	-19.266
*8001	PANTHER	-15.798
*6095	UPLIFT	-13.212
*6900	X3	-11.592
*6175	LOVE BYTE	-9.678
*8301	CADENZA	-9.576
2999	OBSESSION	-9.492
6155	GETAWAY SAILING.COM	-9.048
*5382	TOCCATA	-7.182
*2020	SPEARHEAD	-6.414
*KA400	SCARLETT O'HARA	-5.076
4970	AKELA	-4.536
**6999	TALON	-3.744
*6279	SUMMERSALT	-3.582
*8004	DJ2 BOS GLOBAL	-3.372
*6472	SYMBIOSIS	-3.336
*7404	CHANCELLOR	-2.712
*4208	FARR LAP	-1.914
*80808	PANACEA	-1.242
*MH163	CHLOE III	-1.200
4037	SHEER FORCE	0.000
*316	ANTHANTA VI	0.288
*6182	SUNDOWNER V	0.468
*MH304	DISTRACTION	1.278
*5665	AMON RA	2.820

Race15 Results

Now that the results for Race15 have come out, it seems that maybe the Sheer Force crew should have attended the protest meeting! If Chloe III did in fact sail the wrong course, as one of the protestors is thought to have claimed, then she wasn't penalised for it. She has taken1st place on corrected times in the race, and accordingly (with our 9th placing) has passed us in both pointscores to take 3rd place (main pointscore) and 1st place (lite pointscore). Spearhead came 4th and Symbiosis came 5th and were able to maintain their 1st and 2nd positions in the main pointscore.

The results show that 6 yachts withdrew from the race, suggesting that they sailed to the longer, regular course Lady Bay mark, and, admitting that, withdrew to avoid disqualification.

I use the statistic elapsed time difference from fleet average to judge the performance of yachts from race to race. It's not perfect, but it is a good guide. The graph shows the passage of this statistic through the series for Sheer Force as well as Chloe III and Spearhead. It shows that Sheer Force had a "typical" Race15, but that Spearhead and particularly Chloe III recorded exceptionally good times. Chloe III has indeed been improving all season, but can she really have improved about 12 minutes in the last race??? These statistics are calculated before the withdrawals are removed from the results, so it cannot be said that they are skewed by the withdrawals. In terms of the finishing order, Chloe III and Summersalt surprised the handicapper greatly by crossing the line 5 and 4 places respectively better than the time correction factors would predict.

These are the only facts available to us, but if it was a horserace, swabs would be taken.

The table below shows only the qualified finishers, sorted as usual by elapsed time.

Results Race15	Elapsed	Outright	Handicap	Diff fm	Mins	Rel to
	Time	Place	Predict	Fleet	behind	Sheer
			Place	Average	winner	Force
SCARLETT O'HARA	0:58:04	1	4	-7.6	0:00:00	0:12:10
SUMMERSALT	0:58:17	2	6	-7.4	0:00:13	0:11:57
SPEARHEAD	0:58:19	3	2	-7.4	0:00:15	0:11:55
TOCCATA	0:58:24	4	1	-7.3	0:00:20	0:11:50
CHLOE III	0:59:37	5	10	-6.1	0:01:33	0:10:37
SYMBIOSIS	1:01:07	6	5	-4.6	0:03:03	0:09:07
AKELA	1:01:56	7	3	-3.8	0:03:52	0:08:18
FARR LAP	1:08:42	8	9	3.0	0:10:38	0:01:32
CHANCELLOR	1:09:56	9	7	4.2	0:11:52	0:00:18
SALONA	1:09:58	10	8	4.3	0:11:54	0:00:16
SHEER FORCE	1:10:14	11	11	4.5	0:12:10	0:00:00
ANTHANTA VI	1:13:00	12	12	7.3	0:14:56	0:02:46
AMON RA	1:13:47	13	13	8.1	0:15:43	0:03:33
	Corrected	Corrected
	Time	Position
SCARLETT O'HARA	0:58:55	3
SUMMERSALT	0:57:44	2
SPEARHEAD	1:00:33	4
TOCCATA	1:01:43	6
CHLOE III	0:57:00	1
SYMBIOSIS	1:00:44	5
AKELA	1:03:34	7
FARR LAP	1:07:04	10
CHANCELLOR	1:09:12	13
SALONA	1:08:30	11
SHEER FORCE	1:06:19	9
ANTHANTA VI	1:08:49	12
AMON RA	1:06:12	8

Sheer Force crossed the line in 11th place out of 13, some 12 minutes behind Scarlett O'Hara which got the gun. (Panther, a withdrawal, was akmost 3 minutes ahead of Scarlett.) Our 11th place was exactly as predicted by the handicap. The handicapper's score in Race15 depends on weather its calculated before or after the withdrawals. It was a lousy minus 19%. counting all yachts, but the score improves to plus 22% if the withdrawals are excluded.

Race15 PreReport Blog

There can be no real report on Race 15 until the protests meeting is held and then we will know who came where and by how much. But Noni and Oliver took some great photos on David's camera, so in the meantime, here are three of them. Enjoy!

Race15 Handicaps

As shown in the graph, the latest update to Sheer Force's time correction factor almost takes us full circle to the handicap we had at the start of the series. This is the price of doing well, obviously!

Several yachts were penalised more than Sheer Force in the latest corrections. These were Obsession, Anthanta IV, Sundowner V, Chloe III and Symbiosis, for that we can be thankful, and we are now planted in the middle of our peer group. We have to beat Anthanta, Sundowner by up to a minute, and Distraction and Amon Ra by more. Chloe, Panacea and Farr Lap have to beat Sheer Force by up to two minutes.

**7878	SAILORS WITH DISABILITIES	-19.266
*8001	PANTHER	-15.798
*6095	UPLIFT	-13.212
*6900	X3	-11.592
*6175	LOVE BYTE	-9.678
*8301	CADENZA	-9.576
2999	OBSESSION	-9.492
6155	GETAWAY SAILING.COM	-9.048
*5382	TOCCATA	-6.750
*2020	SPEARHEAD	-5.646
4970	AKELA	-4.920
*KA400	SCARLETT O'HARA	-4.224
**6999	TALON	-3.744
*8004	DJ2 BOS GLOBAL	-3.372
*6472	SYMBIOSIS	-2.958
*6279	SUMMERSALT	-2.778
*7404	CHANCELLOR	-2.712
*4208	FARR LAP	-1.914
*80808	PANACEA	-1.242
*MH163	CHLOE III	-0.702
4037	SHEER FORCE	0.000
*316	ANTHANTA VI	0.102
*6182	SUNDOWNER V	0.468
*MH304	DISTRACTION	1.278
*5665	AMON RA	2.820

The pointscores are very close, especially the "lite" series which Sheer Force can win by finishing one place ahead of Chloe III on corrected times (making sure we are not caught by anyone behind us). It's difficult to win the full season pointscore in this last race because we are 6 points behind Spearhead, and our drops are 4 points worse. (But we can win if we finish 1st, and Spearhead is 11th or worse.) We only have to beat Symbiosis on handicap to hold second place, but Chloe is threatening us from only 5 points behind us, with a 2 points favourable drop position, so we are vulnerable.

Race14 Results

Fantastic! Sheer Force's 2nd place on corrected time while our master tactician was otherwise occupied on the Champs d'Elysee was a great source of joy for the crew, including the broken footed Clare. After the handicap factors were applied, we were 1m05 behind Sundowner V, although only 20secs behind her on the water.

This great result, achieved in a 10kn north-easterly, will keep us in equal 2nd place on 50pts in the main pointscore (with Symbiosis) when the points are updated. Our hoped for equal first place will not eventuate, because Spearhead, having come 15th on corrected times, will only add 8pts due to her drop situation, and will retain 1st place on 44pts. The main pointscore is close with only one race to go, but the "lite" pointscore is much closer. Sheer Force will be in 2nd place, only one point behind Chloe III, and one point ahead of Spearhead.

The table below shows the top 4 places in each of the expected pointscores after Race 14.

Points after Race14	Points	Place	Lowest Drop
SPEARHEAD	44	1	9
SYMBIOSIS	50	2	13
SHEER FORCE	50	2	13
CHLOE III	55	4	11
Pointscore "Lite"
CHLOE III	14	1	9
SHEER FORCE	15	2	8
SPEARHEAD	16	3	15
SYMBIOSIS	25	4	13

We rarely lead Farr Lap on the way back after the top mark, so the attached photo is included to attest to that. On the water, Sheer Force finished 18th out of 22. That fleet was the biggest in the series so far, and we crossed the line ahead of (unexpected by the handicapper) Farr Lap, Chancellor and Talon, as well as Anthanta IV (expected). Sundowner V, which we should have beaten by the handicapper's judgment, trailed us for a while, but passed us on the run to the line and won on handicap.

It was a bad race for the handicapper, with many yachts finishing way differently to their predictions. Even worse, the spread of corrected times (15m11) was greater than the spread of elapsed times (13m22), giving a negative score of -14%! This was mainly due a particularly slow race by the highest rated yacht CMC Markets (getawaysailing.com) which got the rare double of getting the gun (13mins ahead of Sheer Force) but coming last on corrected times, 9 mins behind 2nd last Panther. Not a good race for the biggest yachts. Maybe they lost time looking for the YA buoy at Lady Bay?

The table below gives the results sorted into the order across the finish line.

Results Race14	Elapsed	Outright	Handicap	Diff fm	Mins	Rel to
	Time	Place	Predict	Fleet	behind	Sheer
			Place	Average	winner	Force
CMC MARKETS	0:56:57	1	1	-8.4	0:00:00	0:12:47
PANTHER	0:58:28	2	2	-6.9	0:01:31	0:11:16
UPLIFT	0:58:53	3	3	-6.5	0:01:56	0:10:51
LOVE BYTE	0:59:57	4	6	-5.4	0:03:00	0:09:47
OBSESSION	1:00:27	5	7	-4.9	0:03:30	0:09:17
CADENZA	1:00:30	6	5	-4.8	0:03:33	0:09:14
NEXT	1:02:31	7	4	-2.8	0:05:34	0:07:13
TOCCATA	1:03:05	8	8	-2.3	0:06:08	0:06:39
SCARLETT O'HARA	1:06:07	9	12	0.8	0:09:10	0:03:37
LEONARDO	1:06:08	10	9	0.8	0:09:11	0:03:36
AKELA	1:06:19	11	11	1.0	0:09:22	0:03:25
SPEARHEAD	1:06:21	12	10	1.0	0:09:24	0:03:23
SYMBIOSIS	1:06:35	13	17	1.2	0:09:38	0:03:09
DJ2 BOS GLOBAL	1:08:02	14	15	2.7	0:11:05	0:01:42
SUMMERSALT	1:08:14	15	16	2.9	0:11:17	0:01:30
CHLOE III	1:09:18	16	19	4.0	0:12:21	0:00:26
SUNDOWNER V	1:09:24	17	22	4.1	0:12:27	0:00:20
SHEER FORCE	1:09:44	18	20	4.4	0:12:47	0:00:00
CHANCELLOR	1:09:57	19	14	4.6	0:13:00	0:00:13
TALON	1:10:05	20	13	4.7	0:13:08	0:00:21
ANTHANTA VI	1:10:19	21	21	5.0	0:13:22	0:00:35
FARR LAP	1:10:19	22	18	5.0	0:13:22	0:00:35
	Corrected	Corrected
	Time	Position
CMC MARKETS	1:19:43	22
PANTHER	1:10:59	21
UPLIFT	1:08:41	14
LOVE BYTE	1:06:05	6
OBSESSION	1:06:12	7
CADENZA	1:06:54	9
NEXT	1:09:28	17
TOCCATA	1:06:27	8
SCARLETT O'HARA	1:07:03	10
LEONARDO	1:09:33	18
AKELA	1:08:14	13
SPEARHEAD	1:08:58	15
SYMBIOSIS	1:05:52	5
DJ2 BOS GLOBAL	1:08:04	11
SUMMERSALT	1:08:07	12
CHLOE III	1:05:50	4
SUNDOWNER V	1:04:32	1
SHEER FORCE	1:05:37	2
CHANCELLOR	1:10:18	19
TALON	1:10:33	20
ANTHANTA VI	1:05:46	3
FARR LAP	1:09:11	16